Trump is closing in on the core of the Federal Reserve. If Cook is replaced, pro-Trump board members will instantly increase to four, which is already enough to change the atmosphere at the meeting table. Even if the chairman and vice chairman have not yet been decided, the direction has already shifted towards dovish.

The tone of Jackson Hole is very clear: officials are starting to fear a downturn in employment more than a resurgence of inflation. This indicates that the risk balance has shifted; there is a chance for a rate cut in September, and the remaining factors depend on the final outcomes of NFP and CPI.

The after-hours earnings report of $NVDA is the biggest variable tonight. The market needs to confirm whether AI spending can still support the valuation; if it weakens, the AI trading chain may cool off in the short term.

The pressure on crypto here is very real; the selling by old OG whales is true capital. If US stocks weaken, traditional capital's confidence in BTC allocation will wane, and a new round of risks will emerge.