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Why hasn't The Federal Reserve (FED) cut interest rates yet???
The Federal Reserve (FED) did not cut interest rates today precisely because the macroeconomic control policies of the Federal Reserve (FED) are gradually becoming ineffective, specifically including
1. A portion of overseas US dollar liquidity has been siphoned off by stablecoins in the virtual currency sector. The United States has no foreign exchange controls, and currency exchange can only be inferred from the daily operations of large banks. The scale of USDC has grown from hundreds of billions two years ago to several trillion this year, but the liquidity has already reached several trillion. It is important to note that this still strictly refers to the M0 money supply circulating in the market and does not include the leverage on BTC.
2. The previous interest rate cuts followed by increases, similar to the actions of central banks in many countries during economic crises, lead many to believe that judging whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates based on employment and inflation is problematic.
The Federal Reserve's adjustment of interest rates is equivalent to adjusting the yield of the underlying assets, while the transmission effects of employment rates and inflation are delayed. The bursting of Japan's economic bubble in the 1990s is a good example, as labor dispatch became popular only after 2000. Even in the highly sensitive U.S. market, it is difficult to reflect all the symptoms after interest rate hikes and cuts.
Therefore, the performance of the last emergency interest rate hike seems more like a result of the Federal Reserve (FED) realizing its delayed response. Don't think of the U.S. central bank as an all-knowing and all-powerful Cthulhu; the vast bureaucratic system finds it difficult to analyze data efficiently and comprehensively. If it could, it wouldn't have led to the previous technical bankruptcies of mid-sized banks.
3. Therefore, the current situation of the Federal Reserve and Trump seems to have a flavor of setting traps for each other; whoever implements interest rate cuts can claim that the economic issues and employment problems are caused by the other party. All macroeconomic tools have been used, and if it still doesn't work, it surely isn't their own problem.
Of course, there is also a possibility that the Federal Reserve can tame inflation, and Trump can handle employment. Whoever achieves this first will reap the reputation of a smooth landing and may even be re-elected. Even the strong US dollar cannot currently accumulate the capital needed to shift the local economy from imports to domestic sales without any bottom line.
The manufacturing dilemma in the United States is quite similar to that of Southeast Asian countries. The government is unwilling to support infrastructure and initial investments, private owners are hesitant to take on high-interest projects for fear of them being left unfinished, and financial regulators are concerned about the infiltration of virtual currencies into the financial system's decision-making. Therefore, they can only proceed step by step, first relaxing regulations, and then using direct financing to improve the return on investment.