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The United States has lost its top rating from three major credit agencies, with Moody's downgrading the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1.
On 18 May, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa and revised its outlook to “stable” on 16 May. The downward revision is due to the continued rise in government debt-to-interest payment ratios, with the fiscal deficit expected to be close to 9% of GDP by 2035. This is Moody’s first downgrade of the U.S. since 1917, and the U.S. has lost all of its top AAA ratings from the three major credit rating agencies. In November 2023, Moody’s revised its U.S. credit rating outlook to “negative” from “stable” but kept its AAA rating unchanged. Reasons include an increase in the debt burden, rising interest costs and a lack of effective control of the fiscal deficit. Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. rating from AAA to AA+ in 2011 and has not changed further since. In the past two years, S&P has maintained an AA+ rating on the United States, with a “stable” outlook. The reasons for the S&P’s downgrade in 2011 included political gridlock and fiscal deficit issues, and recent comments indicate that it will continue to focus on debt growth and political divisions. Fitch placed the US AAA rating on “negative watch” on 24 May 2023, warning that the debt ceiling crisis could lead to the risk of default. On August 1, 2023, the company downgraded its U.S. rating to AA+ from AAA, with a “stable” outlook. The downward revision is due to the expected deterioration of fiscal conditions over the next three years, high debt burdens (debt/GDP projected to reach 118.4% in 2025), and erosion of governance capacity (repeated debt ceiling deadlocks). Fitch has not made any further changes to its rating in recent years, maintaining its AA+ and ‘stable’ outlook.