On August 20, Helge André Martinsen and Tobias Ingebrigtsen of Norway Bank pointed out that if OPEC+ continues its plan to resume production in 2025, cloth oil prices could fall to $60-70 per barrel next year. The bank’s base assumption is that OPEC+ will cancel planned production increases to protect prices. Next year “looks challenging for OPEC as we expect the oil market to shift to a modest oversupply even if OPEC extends its existing production cuts.” The bank said that “global oil demand has risen markedly,” adding only 900,000 b/d so far this year to 2.1 million b/d in 2023, compared with a strong supply rise of about 1.5 million b/d from competitors this year and next. “Weak demand and non-OPEC supply rise remain strong, leaving OPEC with no room to increase supply next year.” Norway Bank maintained its 2024 oil price forecast of $82/b and lowered its 2025 price forecast to $77/b from $85/bbl.
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