Gate CBO Kevin Lee: Oil prices move first, inflation follows, and the central bank's path is the ultimate variable

ChainCatcher News, Gate CBO Kevin Lee has published a new article titled “War, War Has Never Changed… How Will the Macro Markets Move?” It points out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental logic of market operation. What truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of ongoing conflicts on inflation trajectories and changes in central bank policy stances.

Kevin states that within hours to days after a conflict erupts, crude oil usually experiences significant volatility first, with market pricing in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then follows, serving as both a safe haven and an inflation hedge; stock markets face short-term pressure, with the VIX rising rapidly and sector divergence becoming apparent.

After several days to two weeks, if energy supplies remain unaffected, oil prices and risk premiums tend to retrace, and stocks and cryptocurrencies rebound as risk sentiment recovers; however, if high oil prices persist longer, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting asset valuation logic from trading to macroeconomic fundamentals.

The article further emphasizes that the true change in trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over longer cycles, markets will reprice around inflation evolution, the credibility of monetary policy, and economic growth prospects. Historical experience repeatedly shows that in environments of high uncertainty, emotional decision-making can be costly. Understanding transmission sequences and respecting cyclical laws are key to navigating volatility.