Macro guru Luke Gromen says a potential COVID March 2020-style market capitulation could rock bitcoin and financial markets in the near future before any sort of liquidity-driven rally arrives.
Sudden AI Deflation Could Cause COVID-Style Market Crash, Investor Luke Gromen Argues
Speaking in an update to investors on his YouTube channel, Luke Gromen, founder of market research firm FFTT, says that while an inflationary wave is becoming more and more likely, there’s an “order of operations” that needs to be accounted for.
While a multi-year money-printing-induced bull market is expected by many analysts and perhaps almost a consensus, Gromen warns that there will likely be a sharp correction beforehand, potentially triggered by the growth of artificial intelligence (AI).
He compares the scenario to March 2020, when the market crash ended up justifying the stimulus that eventually caused explosive rallies in basically all risk assets.
Gromen said:
“ Bitcoin, I think, eventually, sure, it’ll do great. But bitcoin is still trading like a high beta tech stock, that’s just a fact. And if we do get AI-driven deflation, unless bitcoin starts trading like a reserve asset, then I think the faster that AI goes, the more risk there is that bitcoin does a COVID March 2020 type of thing. It went from what, $15,000 to $5,000 pretty quickly? It could do that again. It’s not my base case, not to $5,000, but I’m just saying that type of drop in deflation before the printing starts. The point here is not that I think bitcoin is going there, the point here is that there’s an order of operations that I think is important to mind.”
Read More: Bitcoin Price Action Tightens as Indicators Hint at Fatigue
Gromen adds that he still has high conviction that there will be liquidity added in “very large amounts,” but says that getting the path right is important and perhaps overlooked.
Between February and March 2020, Bitcoin dropped roughly 61% from $10,400 to $3,800 before bouncing into a historic bull run to $65,000. From current levels, a similar move would put bitcoin around $36,000.
FAQ
- What is Luke Gromen warning about bitcoin and markets?
Luke Gromen warns that an AI-driven deflation shock could trigger a sharp, COVID-style market sell-off before any liquidity-fueled rally.
- Why does Gromen compare this to March 2020?
He says a sudden crash could justify massive stimulus, similar to how the 2020 capitulation preceded a historic bull market.
- How could bitcoin be affected in this scenario?
Because bitcoin still trades like a high-beta tech asset, Gromen says it could see a steep drawdown before monetary easing begins.
- Does Gromen remain bullish long-term?
Yes, he maintains high conviction that large-scale liquidity will eventually drive markets, including bitcoin, significantly higher.
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