BlockBeats news, on December 21, IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on social media, “2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market and also the dawn of the institutional era. This is a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycle. A review of the crypto market in 2025 shows a paradigm shift from retail investor speculation to institutional allocation, with core data showing institutional holdings at 24% and retail investors exiting at 66%, completing the turnover in the crypto market. Although BTC fell by 5.4% in 2025, it reached an all-time high of $126,080 during that period. Market dominance has shifted from retail investors to institutions. Institutions continue to build positions at 'high levels' because they are not looking at prices but at cycles. Retail investors are selling, while institutions are buying. This is not the 'top of the bull run', but rather the 'institutional accumulation period'. There will be mid-term elections in November 2026. The historical pattern is 'election year policies precede', so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 is the policy honeymoon period and institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 will see political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, there are still risks such as Fed policies, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling by LTH, and uncertainty in election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity, and when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position. Short-term (3-6 months): fluctuating in the range of $87,000-$95,000, institutions continue to build positions. Mid-term (first half of 2026): driven by both policy and institutions, targeting $120,000-$150,000. Long-term (second half of 2026): increased volatility, watching election results and policy continuity. This is not the peak of the cycle but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Although the annual return of BTC is negative, ETF investors show strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 is the worst for crypto, but in reality, it features: the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest willingness for institutional allocation, the clearest policy support, and the most comprehensive infrastructure improvement. Although prices fell by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026. Key points to watch in 2026 include: progress on market structure legislation, the possibility of strategic Bitcoin reserve expansion, and policy continuity after the mid-term elections. In the long run, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lays the foundation for the next bull run. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt.”
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