CPI Report Eve: Bitcoin holds steady at $108,000 with narrow fluctuations, while Ethereum faces support tests after a massive liquidation!

On Thursday in Asian time, both the cryptocurrency and stock markets maintained a cautious sentiment, with traders waiting for the key U.S. inflation (CPI) report to be released on Friday. Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly around $108,164, with a weekly decline of 2%; Ethereum's volume surged by 33%, but a $650 million transfer from the foundation triggered $700 million in profit-taking and long positions liquidation. The market focus is on the CPI data, the results of which will serve as the “only anchor” for policy expectations and may determine whether Ethereum can hold the critical support at $3,470.

Macroeconomic Data Dominates: Market Enters “Equilibrium Zone” Before CPI Release

The crypto market is showing a high degree of wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the release of the US CPI data. Analysts believe that this key data will be a decisive factor for short-term policy and liquidity expectations.

· Bitcoin and Ethereum's narrow consolidation: Bitcoin is currently trading around $108,164, while Ethereum hovers around $3,815. Analysts at QCP Capital describe the current trend as a “narrow equilibrium range,” awaiting the release of Friday's U.S. CPI data.

· CPI becomes the “only anchor”: CPI data is one of the few major economic indicators that has not been delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown in the United States, and is regarded by QCP Capital as the “only anchor shaping policy expectations.”

· Inflation expectations and risk assets: If the CPI increase is 0.2%, it may support risk assets, strengthen the narrative of an economic “soft landing,” and improve market liquidity prospects.

· Volatility remains high: Although the market has found support, partly due to the weakening dollar and declining real yields, a stronger-than-expected CPI could change interest rate expectations and reapply pressure on the crypto and stock markets.

Ethereum's Wild Fluctuations: A Double Impact of Surge in Volume and Massive Liquidations

Ethereum has shown active trading interest before the CPI expectation, but a massive transfer from the Ethereum Foundation has caused a drastic impact on price movements in the short term.

· Volume Surge: 33% Ethereum's volume surged by 33%, reflecting the renewed interest of traders ahead of the data release.

· The foundation's transfer triggered selling pressure: a transfer of 650 million dollars by the Ethereum Foundation led to 700 million dollars in profit-taking and long positions liquidations, causing mixed short-term outlooks on Ethereum in the market.

· Key support level $3470: Analysts are closely monitoring the critical support level of 3,470 USD. If this level holds, Ethereum is expected to push towards 5,000 USD; if it fails, the price may fall to 2,850 USD.

Macroeconomic Turnaround: Signals of Easing Tensions in China-U.S. Trade

Market sentiment has stabilized after recent fluctuations, partly due to optimistic expectations for the easing of tensions in China-US trade.

· Increased likelihood of trade agreement: Polymarket traders now believe that the probability of the United States and China reaching a new tariff agreement before November 10 is 77%. The likelihood of the Trump campaign team implementing a 100% tariff has dropped to 16%.

· Interpretation by QCP Capital: QCP Capital believes that the upcoming meeting between Trump and the Chinese President may yield “pragmatic” results. Trump's recent statement that “the U.S. wants to help China, not hurt it” supports the view that tensions are easing.

· Market sentiment improves: The reduction of trade risks has helped calm the crypto and stock markets after last week's massive sell-off (including a $20 billion liquidation wave). Macro traders are readjusting their positions ahead of the CPI data release.

Gold and Asian Stock Markets: Uncertainty Remains, Export Concerns Resurface

The performance of traditional assets and Asian stock markets paints a more complex and cautious picture.

· Gold Pullback: Gold prices have pulled back from historical highs, with futures prices down 0.3%. Investors are taking profits, although analysts believe that central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts will continue to provide support for gold.

· Japanese stock market falls: The Japanese Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.5% due to reports that the Trump administration may tighten export regulations on China, reigniting concerns over trade restrictions between the two major economies. Other Asia-Pacific markets also showed weakness.

Conclusion

The global market is at a critical crossroads, and Friday's US CPI report will be a decisive factor for the next phase of movement in both crypto and traditional assets. Although signs of easing tensions in US-China trade have brought temporary calm to the market, the massive liquidations experienced by Ethereum and the test of the key support at $3,470 remind investors that volatility remains high. A dovish CPI report would provide upward momentum for risk assets, while unexpectedly high inflation data could trigger another sell-off. Investors should exercise caution ahead of the data release and closely monitor changes in the macro fundamentals.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.