From September 25 to 26, on-chain funds continued to be significantly active. The ETH market became the protagonist, with a single Whale accumulating over $107 million in ETH within 24 hours. Off-market Whales also continued to increase the position, with total inflow exceeding $2 billion, indicating strong support from long-term funds; Forward Industries, the largest treasury company of Solana, faced a loss exceeding $245 million in its huge holdings, putting pressure on ecological funds; The public sale of XPL and transactions in the Secondary Market were exceptionally hot, with Whales and early investors achieving high profits and a rapid concentration of chips; ASTER continued to receive increases in positions from public figures and institutions, with the concentration of top chips continuously rising; Meanwhile, Ma Ji Da Ge Huang Li Cheng's long positions with leverage continued to incur losses, highlighting the risks of high leverage. Overall, the capital game between mainstream assets and emerging Tokens has intensified, and market volatility has further amplified.
BTC Market Dynamics
· “Smart money made a profit of 5.16 million dollars by shorting during the LUNA/UST crash” spent 9.829 million USDT to buy 89.44 WBTC at an average price of 109,897 dollars.
The government of the Kingdom of Bhutan transferred 355.51 BTC (387.8 million USD) into a new wallet, which may involve reserve adjustments.
Analysis: In the BTC market, there continues to be a presence of risk aversion and long-term allocation of funds. The Bhutanese government's transfer of BTC signifies continued official holdings, while the actions of smart money once again indicate a bet on a medium-term rebound. Overall, BTC still has short-term fluctuations, but the support is strong.
ETH Market Dynamics
· A Whale bought 23,997 ETH, and today withdrew 2,560 ETH from CEX, with a total of 26,557 ETH bought in the last 24 hours (10.79 million USD), at an average price of 4,065 USD.
· A certain OTC Whale has purchased 60,333 ETH (worth 238.7 million USD) at an average price of 4,230 USD over the past 7 days, currently facing an unrealized loss of over 16 million USD.
· The swing address 0x54d…e6029 bought 7,632 ETH at an average price of 3928.66 USD (29.985 million USD), and placed a limit sell order for 2,547 ETH at 3955 USD on Cowswap.
In the past 2 days, a total of 15 wallets have received 406,117 ETH (1.6 billion USD) from CEX, Galaxy Digital, BitGo, and FalconX.
· 3 new wallets received 72,737 ETH (283.36 million USD) from CEX and BitGo.
· Additionally, 5 new wallets have withdrawn 173,654 ETH (approximately $707.5 million) from FalconX.
Analysis: The ETH market is welcoming a large number of whales and institutions building positions amidst high fluctuations. Although short-term price corrections have led to some funds being at a loss, the overall support scale shows the long-term confidence of the funds. It is expected that ETH will still fluctuate in the short term, but medium and long-term capital inflows may provide support for the price.
SOL Market Dynamics
· Forward Industries once bought 6,822,000 SOL at an average price of 232 USD (currently valued at 1.34 billion USD), with a paper loss of over 245 million USD.
Analysis: SOL's largest treasury is facing significant losses, highlighting the institutional allocation risks during periods of high fluctuation. If the treasury continues to hold, it may create potential selling pressure on the market; if it chooses to hedge or reduce the position, it may further exacerbate market fluctuations.
Other Token Dynamics
· YouTuber MrBeast purchased 538,384 ASTER (approximately 990,000 USD) in the past 3 days, with an average price of about 1.87 USD.
· A Whale transferred 83.95 million USDT to Gate within 3 days and withdrew 55 million ASTER (average price of about 1.53 USD), with the latest withdrawal being 5 million coins (10 million USD).
· Address 0x4F1…6618B sold 4.84 million USD WBTC and 2.838 million USD AAVE, transferring 4.692 million USDC to Hyperliquid, purchasing 101,000 HYPE (4.25 million USD).
· Whale address sold 249,999 HYPE (10.5 million USD) and bought 7.92 million XPL. · Address 0xcc07 deposited 6.27 million USDC to buy 5.28 million XPL at 1.19 USD; address 0xF555 deposited 6 million USDC to buy 5.7 million XPL at 1.05 USD.
· Whale @RegbilTrades bought 11.44 million XPL during the public sale stage for 571,800 USD (average price 0.05 USD), now valued at 11.8 million USD, with a profit of over 11 million USD, a return of 19 times.
· Whale 0x790c deposited 50 million USDT into Plasma, receiving 54.09 million XPL (average price 0.05 USD), currently valued at 50.4 million USD, with unrealized profits exceeding 47.7 million USD.
· A certain Whale sold the last 164,000 LINK at $20.42 (3.35 million USD), accumulating a profit of 899,000 USD; another Whale sold 233,094 LINK at $20.8 (4.85 million USD) and deposited 10,000 LINK (209,000 USD) into a CEX.
· Aster protocol's revenue surged to 16.17 million USD yesterday, second only to Tether (22.08 million USD), approximately 3 times that of Hyperliquid (4.89 million USD).
· “Maji Brother” Huang Licheng lost 32.89 million USD on Hyperliquid in the past week, currently holding long positions in ETH, HYPE, and PUMP with an unrealized loss of about 20 million USD, and has added a 10x leverage XPL long position (2.333 million USD), now with an unrealized loss of 171,000 USD.
Analysis: ASTER continues to concentrate chips under the buying power of public figures and institutions; XPL has become the new favorite of market funds, with deep involvement from whales in both public sales and the secondary market, driving up prices and liquidity; HYPE and LINK have seen significant capital rotation, indicating a rapid change in funding preferences; the leveraged position of Ma Ji Da Ge is under pressure, reflecting the uncertainty of high-risk operations in the current market.
Market Overview and Trend Analysis
· BTC and ETH: BTC is supported by official and smart money, with limited short-term fluctuation; ETH whales continue to increase the position, with a large scale of capital inflow, showing a clear long-term bullish trend, but short-term fluctuation risks are intensifying.
· SOL: Forward Industries' massive losses may trigger selling pressure, and the movement of institutional funds deserves close attention.
· XPL and HYPE: XPL has become a new battlefield for funds, with high enthusiasm in both public sales and the secondary market, likely to maintain strength in the short term; HYPE, on the other hand, is in a turnover period, with chips concentrated among a few large holders.
· ASTER: Institutions and public figures continue to buy in, ecological revenue is growing rapidly, project popularity is still rising, but the risk of concentrated holdings needs attention.
Conclusion
On September 26, on-chain data revealed the differentiation pattern between mainstream coins and emerging tokens: ETH whales continue to increase the position, becoming a market confidence anchor; SOL treasury is facing significant losses, posing potential risks; XPL is rapidly rising driven by whales and institutions; ASTER is steadily improving under the dual support of income and buying intensity. The market's long and short fund game intensifies, and volatility significantly amplifies. Investors need to be vigilant about high leverage risks while seizing structural opportunities.
