Hedera Price Prediction: HBAR Shows Breakout Signals Again by the End of 2024, Gaussian Channel Turning Green Indicates a big pump

Analyst Steph Is Crypto releases a significant assessment: Hedera (HBAR)'s current technical structure is highly consistent with the pattern before the big pump at the end of 2024. The Gaussian Channel (Gaussian Channel) turning from red to green indicates a breakthrough is imminent. Coupled with the smooth completion of the Mainnet v0.63 version upgrade, HBAR may replicate last year’s rise in the next 4-5 weeks, targeting $0.35 (current price $0.19-$0.24, potential increase of 84%). The key verification point is at the $0.25 resistance level; a breakthrough will confirm a trend reversal, with strong support located in the $0.14-$0.16 range.

Technical Structure: Historical Patterns Precisely Reproduced

• Time Comparison:

  • End of 2024: Break through the Gaussian channel green band, starting a rise to $0.35
  • July 2025: The lower boundary of the channel crosses again, current price testing the green upper edge

• Indicator Analysis:

  • Red Band: Bearish Dominated Area
  • Green Zone: Bullish Dominated Area
  • Current Status: Price has jumped from the red band to the green band (consistent with the breakout before the end of 2024)

• Core Principle: The change in channel color usually indicates the end of accumulation and the price explosion.

  

Key Price Node

• Current trading range: 0.19-0.24 USD (currently testing the upper channel)
• Breakthrough Confirmation Level: 0.25 USD (upper edge of the green band, 2024 breakthrough starting point)
• Short-term target: $0.30-0.35 (previous high range, maximum +84% from current price)
• Strong support area: 0.14-0.16 USD (trend line formed by recent high points lifting up)

Fundamental Catalyst: Mainnet Upgrade Completed

• Version v0.63 Upgrade: Successfully completed deployment with zero faults.
• Core Function: The staking mechanism and economic model operate smoothly.
• Market Impact: While there is no direct price correlation, eliminating technical risks enhances investor confidence.

Time Window and Historical Reference

• Burst Cycle: 4-5 weeks (referencing the duration of the rise after the breakthrough in 2024)
• Volume Requirement: Must break through $0.25 accompanied by increased trading volume
• Failure Condition: Weekly closing breaks below the lower boundary of the 0.14 USD channel

Trading Strategy

1. Breakout Longs:
   • The daily close is above 0.25 US dollars for building positions.
   • Target step: $0.30 → $0.35
2. Retracement Layout:
   • Buy on dips in the range of 0.16-0.17 USD
   • Strict stop loss below 0.14 USD
3. Position Management:
   • Initial position ≤ 3% of total funds
   • A breakthrough of $0.28 (previous wave high) can increase the position

on-chain data verification

• Position Distribution: The range of 0.25-0.28 USD is a moderate supply zone, with sparse resistance above after a breakout.
• Whale Activity: The address holding more than 10 million HBAR has increased its holdings by +18% compared to the previous week.
• Staking Data: After the Mainnet upgrade, the staking volume increased by 120 million coins (approximately $2.4 million)

Conclusion: The technical and fundamental aspects of Hedera are forming a rare resonance: the Gaussian channel is reproducing the structure before the big pump in 2024, and the Mainnet upgrade eliminates systemic risks. Bulls need to conquer the key fortress at $0.25 to confirm a trend reversal, with the first target after breaking through at $0.30 and the core target at $0.35 (corresponding to last year’s high point). The time window focuses on the next 4-5 weeks, and if it starts as expected, it will validate the “wealth creation market” prediction. Investors need to be wary of two major risks: 1) the failure to break through $0.25 after a long attack forming a double top; 2) a market pullback triggering excess declines in small and mid-cap tokens. It is recommended to adopt a breakout follow-up strategy and strictly maintain a stop-loss line at $0.14.