Monero (XMR) faces its first major challenge after the November breakout: What’s the next trend?

On Sunday, November 30, Monero (XMR) challenged the $440 resistance level. However, the previous downward momentum in the market created selling pressure on XMR.

Since this local peak, Monero has lost 10.6%, but it remains one of the few large-cap cryptocurrencies to maintain prospects for recent highs.

Source: TradingViewSince the beginning of November, XMR has increased by 15.8%, while the two other leading privacy coins, ZCash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH), have dropped by 22.52% and 15.23% respectively.

Although Monero has maintained stable performance in recent weeks, the long-term picture since September is still not particularly impressive: ZCash has surged 760%, while Monero has only modestly increased by 50.3%. However, with its relatively strong performance compared to the market in the past 10 days, the road ahead for XMR is opening up more opportunities for investors.

Monero trend remains positive

XMR/USDT weekly chart | Source: TradingViewOn the weekly timeframe, the previous peak at $420 has been broken, paving the way for a strong continuation of the uptrend. The next upside target is $518 —the all-time high from April 2021.

XMR/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingViewLooking at the daily chart, the swing structure still favors the bulls. The imbalance (white box) around $360 is expected to become a target in the coming days. However, the price rejection at $438 —the local peak in mid-November—is a mild warning, reminding bulls to remain cautious.

Understanding the indicators

The CMF indicator on the weekly chart records strong capital inflow, but on the daily chart, it reflects market hesitation. Similarly, the MACD shows noticeably stronger bullish momentum on the weekly timeframe compared to the daily.

Source: CoinGlassThe liquidation map reveals that Long positions stopped out at $355 have higher total leverage compared to Short positions liquidated at $435.

This suggests that a downward move toward the $355–$360 region could occur in the short term. Conversely, above, investors should note a cluster of high-leverage Short positions concentrated around the $440–$450 area, which could create selling pressure if the price approaches this zone.

Assessing XMR’s bullish and bearish scenarios

The $233 and $320 levels serve as important support points that need to be maintained to uphold the trend. The imbalance on the daily chart, combined with signals from the liquidation map, suggests the risk of further price correction.

If a downturn occurs, the price is likely to hit the $350–$360 region, simultaneously opening an attractive buying opportunity for investors.

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