01 Price Dynamics: Market Sentiment Remains Cautious
According to the latest data from Gate, as of November 5, the price of PI has dropped to $0.2197, down 4.7% over the past 24 hours.
Looking at the intraday price action, PI hit a low of $0.2039 and a high of $0.2309 within the last 24 hours, reflecting significant volatility.
This volatility is also evident in trading volume, which reached $62.9 million over the past 24 hours, indicating that trading activity remains robust despite the market swings.
Market participants are divided on PI’s short-term outlook.
On one hand, a community sentiment survey shows that 88% of respondents are bullish on PI, while only 12% hold a bearish view.
On the other hand, sellers continue to dominate short-term trading, making PI’s price susceptible to further pullbacks.
02 Token Unlocks: Supply Shock Incoming
A key factor behind PI’s recent price decline is the upcoming token unlock event.
According to Pintu News, approximately 121.5 million PI tokens will be unlocked and enter circulation in November, accounting for 2.39% of the current total locked supply.
These soon-to-be-released tokens are valued at roughly $26.7 million, adding extra supply pressure to an already stressed market.
The largest unlock is scheduled for November 15, when over 5.7 million tokens (worth about $1.5 million) are expected to hit the market.
Such unlock events typically trigger market volatility, as the pace of new token supply may outstrip the market’s ability to absorb it.
Short-term investors often seize these moments to take profits, especially after several weeks of price declines, which could push PI further down toward the $0.20 range.
03 On-Chain Data: Whales Quietly Accumulating
Despite the pressure from token unlocks, on-chain data shows that large investors are quietly accumulating PI during the price dip.
Exchange Supply Shrinking
PiScan data reveals that, over the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of 2.3 million PI tokens from KYB (Know Your Business)-verified centralized exchange wallets.
This reduction means the available supply on centralized exchanges has decreased by 0.5481%, easing some of the selling pressure.
Whales Continue to Buy
Even more notably, the sixth-largest wallet on the Pi Network acquired 2.77 million PI tokens in the past 24 hours, increasing its total holdings to 371.15 million tokens.
This transaction was the largest single transfer on the network in the past 24 hours, and it marks the fifth consecutive day this large wallet investor has purchased PI.
Such sustained accumulation may boost trader confidence, as the conviction of major investors is often seen as a signal of an asset’s underlying value.
04 Technical Analysis: Battle for Key Levels
From a technical perspective, Pi Network is currently at a critical juncture.
Short-Term Trend Weakening
PI Coin has been under pressure since breaking below a symmetrical triangle pattern on November 3, signaling that sellers have regained control.
After falling below the $0.2276 level, this price point has now become a resistance zone for sellers.
Each minor rebound attempt has been rejected, indicating that buyers are not yet strong enough to sustain a recovery.
Mixed Indicator Signals
The DMI indicator shows the +D line at 10, suggesting waning buying interest, while the -D line at 31 signals increasing selling pressure.
At the same time, the ADX reading is at 29, indicating that the current downtrend still has momentum and the correction may not be over.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42, sitting between neutral and oversold territory, showing that selling pressure has eased somewhat but has not disappeared.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching the signal line and faces a potential bearish crossover; if confirmed, this would reinforce the bearish momentum.
Key Support and Resistance
Currently, the $0.20 psychological level serves as a critical support for PI, with bulls working to defend this area.
Looking upward, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2555 has become dynamic resistance, blocking price advances for the fourth time in the past week.
If PI can close above $0.2555, the uptrend could extend toward the August 1 low of $0.3220.
05 Ecosystem Developments: KYC and the Web3 Bridge
Despite price challenges, the Pi Network ecosystem continues to make progress.
On-Chain KYC System
Pi Blockchain V23 has introduced a blockchain-based KYC (Know Your Customer) system, a fully integrated identity verification solution within the blockchain.
This technology allows user identity data to be securely stored, with verification processes conducted without third-party involvement. All information is encrypted and accessible only with user permission.
Its Fast KYC system enables pioneers to complete real-time verification, replacing the old manual process and accelerating onboarding for millions of users within the Pi ecosystem.
The Web3 Bridge
With the V23 update, Pi Network is bridging Web2 and Web3 like never before.
Users can now share decentralized applications with non-pioneers through an easy-to-use browser interface.
Pi Browser now displays verified, secure testnet and mainnet DApps, paving the way for seamless integration between the Pi Network and banks, centralized exchanges, and decentralized exchanges.
These developments not only enhance system utility but also ensure that Pi’s digital identity system meets global anti-money laundering and compliance standards through on-chain KYC, laying the groundwork for future institutional partnerships and regulatory readiness.
06 Market Outlook: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
Looking ahead to PI Network’s future price action, market analysts have outlined a range of possible scenarios.
Bearish Scenario
If the token unlock triggers heavy selling and the market cannot effectively absorb the new supply, PI’s price could fall below the $0.20 mark.
Some analysts believe PI may re-enter a consolidation range between $0.209 and $0.198, repeating previous patterns.
In this scenario, recovery attempts could be delayed, and the bearish phase might persist for several more weeks.
Bullish Scenario
If the $0.20 support holds and buying strength gradually increases, PI could begin a step-by-step rebound.
Once the price successfully reclaims $0.229 as support, it may attempt to test resistance at $0.246.
The long-term recovery target remains $0.70, but this would require a clear improvement in market sentiment and sustained capital inflows.
Uncertainties
PI Network’s price action does not exist in a vacuum; it is also influenced by the broader cryptocurrency market environment.
On November 4, Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June 23, while Ethereum dropped 13% to around $3.14.
This overall market weakness could intensify downward pressure on PI, making recovery even more challenging.
Looking Ahead
On-chain data suggests that major investors see opportunity: the sixth-largest wallet on the Pi Network has increased its PI holdings for five consecutive days, acquiring 2.77 million tokens in the past 24 hours alone.
Meanwhile, PI supply on centralized exchanges is shrinking, with net outflows exceeding 2.3 million tokens.
Traders on Gate should closely watch the battle for the critical $0.20 support level, as the outcome is likely to determine PI’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
