The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December has already soared above 80%. This might sound like it's far removed from us, but in reality, it could be the biggest liquidity landmine to watch out for this year. For decades, the yen has been the global capital market's "free leverage"—borrow yen to buy US stocks, crypto, and all kinds of high-yield assets. This strategy has supported a trillion-dollar carry trade. Now that Japan is about to raise rates, it means the cost of this game suddenly spikes, and a large amount of capital will be forced to exit risk assets. You know how sensitive the crypto market is to liquidity. Once carry trades start to unwind, the selling pressure will be very direct. What's even trickier is the sentiment factor—when the world's "most dovish" central bank begins to tighten, market risk appetite cools rapidly. Low liquidity combined with high volatility can easily trigger a cascade of liquidations. So what should you do at this point? A few suggestions: Reduce your contract leverage to the minimum, or simply switch back to spot. Hold more stablecoins on hand and wait to step in when the market is truly panic-selling. Keep a close eye on the market in the 48 hours around the December policy meeting. Look back at the rate hike cycle in 2018, or when Japan adjusted its yield curve control policy in 2022—every time there's a major liquidity retreat, the short-term pain is severe, but it often creates key medium- to long-term buying opportunities. When the tide goes out, you see who's swimming naked. This round may hurt, but it could also be a chance to reposition in core assets like BTC and ETH. The key is, are you holding bubbles right now, or real gold and silver?

I am 38 this year. Eight years ago, I entered the crypto world with just 5,000 RMB. Back then, I didn’t know anything—I just fumbled my way through and learned by trial and error. Now, to be honest, I’m almost embarrassed to say what my account balance is. Over the past 6 months, I mainly traded ETH, BTC, and SOL, with profits of about 1.7 million USDT. Looking back now, those who truly survive in crypto for the long run are never the ones who rush in the hardest, but rather those who know when to stay steady. I’ve summarized the pitfalls I’ve experienced over the years and the lessons I’ve learned. Honestly, these things may seem simple, but they’re extremely effective. If you can grasp even one, it might save you tens of thousands; if you can truly understand three, you’re already ahead of most people. **First**, don’t just focus on the price. Trading volume is the key—that’s the real heartbeat of the market. Price can deceive you, but volume never lies. **Second**, after a sharp price increase, it starts to slowly drop? Don’t panic. Often that’s when someone is quietly accumulating. What you really need to watch out for is when volume suddenly explodes, followed by a big red candle—that’s a bull trap for distributing coins. If you panic and sell, you might end up trapped. **Third**, after a flash crash, the price starts to slowly climb? Don’t rush to buy the dip. That’s not a reversal signal—it’s very likely the last wave of selling. Remember: the market loves to punish those who think “it can’t go any lower.” **Fourth**, regarding trading volume: heavy volume doesn’t necessarily mean the top, but shrinking volume is even more dangerous. If volume keeps up during a rally, the market is still hot; once trading becomes sluggish, a crash could be right around the corner. **Fifth**, don’t rush in just because you see a spike in volume at the bottom. One day of huge volume doesn’t mean much; a real reversal only comes when volume stays strong after a period of consolidation. Take it slow—wait until you see things clearly before making a move. **Sixth**, trading crypto isn’t about candlesticks—it’s about human nature. Volume reflects market consensus, while price only shows emotion. If you can read the volume, you can time your moves right. **Seventh**, and the hardest— the highest level of trading is “nothingness.” Don’t be greedy, don’t be fearful, don’t be impatient. Be able to stay in cash and wait for the right opportunity, and also act decisively when it comes. Winners in the crypto world are never the ones who react the fastest, but those who can stay calm and wait patiently.

#比特币对比代币化黄金 Yesterday, my trading rhythm was disrupted. The short positions I set up in the morning were stopped out by volatility, and the long positions I rushed into during the afternoon rebound barely broke even. Late at night, I was watching Ethereum—missed out on profits by just 15 points. The market has been quite indecisive these past few days. Since there hasn’t been a major breakout rally, it’s likely we’ll continue to see choppy movement on the hourly timeframe. The Fear and Greed Index has now dropped to 27, and my overall outlook is leaning towards weak consolidation, with the possibility of the market shifting lower. Key Bitcoin levels: Resistance at 96200/97200/100000, support at 88880/78500-77700; For Ethereum: Resistance at 3288/3650, support at 3050/2933. In the short term, the main strategy remains to buy low and sell high within the range—don’t chase rallies or panic sell. 📉