Analysts analyze the adoption curve of Bitcoin: expected to be on par with the US dollar by 2030

Source: bitcoinist

Compilation: Blockchain Knight

An analyst explained when BTC can rise to a historical adoption curve comparable to the US dollar (USD).

In a recent article on X, analyst Willy Woo discussed the recent expectations of the financial industry for the original Crypto assets. He mentioned, “The financial industry now sees BTC as a rapidly rising asset class. However, the total market capitalization of the token is currently only around 1.2 trillion dollars.”

The analyst pointed out that asset classes are typically valued in the ‘tens of trillions’.

Woo believes that the expectation around BTC means that the financial industry believes three things: BTC will rise at least tenfold from now on (breaking the $10 trillion market capitalization mark), be comparable in size to the US dollar, and become a reserve asset.

But when will these expectations be realized? To make an estimate, analysts refer to the “adoption” curve of crypto assets. The chart shared by Woo compares the adoption rate of BTC with the adoption rate of the Internet.

The value on the curve here is related to the percentage of the global population currently using the asset. Woo has aggregated all known research on the adoption of BTC and Crypto assets to determine the curve.

Some prominent examples include Glassnode clustering addresses into “entities” (each entity representing an investor controlling a certain number of addresses), and Cambridge verifying exchange user data.

From the chart, it can be seen that the number of BTC users is equivalent to about 4.7% of the current world population.

If BTC is following the S-curve development of the Internet, it may still be in the early stages. If that’s the case, the user base of this asset will start to grow rapidly from here.

Now, how much adoption rate does Crypto assets need to be on par with the US dollar? Woo believes that this will happen when the curve enters the 25% to 40% range, which could be in 2030.

In the coming years, how the adoption curve of BTC will develop and whether it will be similar to what we see on the Internet, remains to be seen.