Analysts pour cold water: This isn't a bull market, more like a "rebound after a crash"

Recently, BTC's rebound has made many people shout again, "See you at $100,000." But some analysts have directly come out to pour cold water: Don't get excited, this looks more like a technical rebound after a severe crash.
What does that mean?
Simply put, the market has fallen too hard before, and now it's just "catching a breath."
Many retail investors have a misconception: as long as it rises for three consecutive days, the bull market has started. But veteran traders know that the most dangerous markets often look the most like a bull market.
Because rebounds are the easiest to make people lose vigilance.
This wave of BTC's quick rebound from lows essentially has a few core reasons: short covering, ETF funds flowing back in, and safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risks. But these are all "emotion-driven" and do not mean the global economy has fully turned around.
The Federal Reserve's rate cuts are still uncertain, and US CPI data could still fluctuate. What's more troublesome is that global funding costs remain high. What does the market resemble now? Like someone heavily in debt suddenly winning five hundred dollars in the lottery, so they go celebrate with hotpot first, but the mortgage is still there.
And the crypto circle's best skill is celebrating early.
Many people are already starting to fantasize about a "full return of the altcoin season," even old coins that haven't moved in three months are being pumped. The problem is: if the macro environment suddenly changes, these coins tend to fall faster than anyone.
Historically, after each major decline, the market experiences a very fierce rebound. Because short sellers take profits, longs buy the dip, and quantitative funds re-enter, the market can suddenly surge like hitting chicken blood. But a true long-term bull market requires sustained capital inflows and loose liquidity.
And right now, neither of these two conditions are fully in place.
So what does the current market resemble most?
Like a cinema just turned on the lights, everyone thinks the movie is over, only to suddenly realize—there's a terrifying Easter egg at the end.
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