News Event Calendar

Tonight at 21:00 (Beijing Time), the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, with the market widely expecting no change, maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% range, along with a press conference by Powell. Following closely is the Q1 GDP and PCE inflation report released on Thursday evening. These two sets of data will form a contradictory set of benchmarks: the Fed will have to weigh between energy-driven inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth.

Market Situation Scan

In terms of liquidity, the spot Bitcoin ETF ended a nine-day consecutive net inflow of $1.1 billion, with a net outflow of $263 million yesterday. This reversal is the most significant single-day redemption since the April rally, causing Bitcoin to fall back below $77k.

Price structure-wise, Bitcoin encountered resistance at the upper boundary of an ascending parallel channel and retreated; the relative strength index has turned bearish, and upward momentum is waning. Superficially bullish technical signals are diverging from the fundamentally weakening capital flow, and this internal contradiction cannot last long.

The U.S. stock market also offers no reference for the crypto space: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, but Bitcoin continues to lag, still over 60% below last year's peak.

Positioning Advice

It is recommended to reduce holdings to within 20% of the total portfolio, keeping only core liquid POW assets. In the next 48 hours, the Fed decision and GDP/PCE data will create a "dual re-pricing": Powell's wording will reveal disagreements within the decision-making body; if inflation persistence is emphasized, market expectations of easing will quickly dissipate; if economic slowdown pressures are acknowledged, risk asset safe-haven sentiment will be further amplified.

The noise most investors overlook is that the market has already priced in a 99% expectation of unchanged interest rates; the real driver of volatility will be the marginal changes in wording within the statement, not the numbers themselves. Central bank policy paths are influenced by geopolitical factors, and actual decision-making flexibility is lower than market generally prices in, which will create discrepancies after data releases. The current tactical window should focus on risk aversion, waiting for clear macro directional signals. #WCTC交易王PK $BTC