From theory to countdown: Google uses zero-knowledge proofs to sound the alarm on blockchain quantum resistance

Title: From Theory to Countdown: Google Uses Zero-Knowledge Proofs to Sound the Quantum Resistance Alarm for Blockchain

Author: Haotian

Source:

Repost: Mars Finance

Lately, with some free time, I briefly studied the impact of quantum computers on the blockchain ecosystem, involving a lot of cryptography background knowledge. I won’t go into too many details, just sharing a few viewpoints:

1. The general academic consensus in the past was that cracking 256-bit elliptic curve encryption algorithms would require about millions of physical qubits, with around 6,000 logical qubits, but Google’s new paper doesn’t introduce any groundbreaking new hardware. Instead, they recompiled Shor’s algorithm (Shor’s algorithm) for execution on quantum circuits, reducing the required logical qubits to 1,200.

What does this mean? It implies that computational costs have been directly reduced by nearly 20 times. This is the core reason why the quantum threat discussion has become so heated. What was previously considered impossible is now beginning to have a “countdown”;

2. Google sets this countdown at 2029, meaning that before this date, encryption methods such as HTTPS, SSL bank certificates, SSH remote login, as well as the underlying ECDSA signature systems of public chains like BTC and Ethereum, must undergo a “quantum-resistant” overhaul. Otherwise, there could be catastrophic consequences.

Regarding this point, 2029 gives only three years. I think that’s overly optimistic, as there’s still a significant gap between theoretical feasibility and practical implementation. But at least it indicates that the window for upgrading cryptographic algorithms against quantum attacks has begun to open. It’s not imminent, but we must not take it lightly;

3. If you still have no concept of the quantum threat, I can further specify some attack surfaces:

1. Currently, about 25%-35% of addresses on the BTC chain have their public keys exposed, including early addresses from the Satoshi era using P2PK format, as well as all reused or transacted addresses. These are within the attack scope; addresses that haven’t transacted yet, once quantum computers mature, could be targeted within the 10-minute window of transaction processing in the mempool, allowing quantum decryption and front-running attacks, potentially paralyzing the entire network;

2. Ethereum faces an even more direct crisis. When an ETH EOA account first sends a transaction, its public key is exposed on-chain through the signature. Coupled with the data availability sampling mechanism introduced by EIP-4844 and the network’s reliance on POS signature verification, Ethereum’s public chain is not just about whether private keys can be cracked. If the signature algorithm isn’t upgraded, the entire network could become essentially useless;

3. The key point is that blockchain transaction histories are traceable and permanently stored on-chain. Although current quantum computers are not yet capable of such attacks, transactions that have already exposed public keys in the past and present are recorded and could become targets once quantum machines are ready.

4. Of course, since quantum attacks still depend on technological breakthroughs and time, in theory, completing a “quantum-resistant” overhaul within the next few years could also be a form of self-rescue.

Ethereum has already been optimizing for “engineering” resilience against quantum threats, including advancing account abstraction to allow EOA addresses to switch signature schemes at the application layer, and moving validator signatures toward post-quantum cryptography (PQC). The core consensus network, which relies on POS, is also being strengthened with quantum-resistant encryption standards. Ethereum’s greatest strength is its dynamic upgrade capability—“flying state upgrades”—so once the direction is clear, achieving quantum resistance is just a matter of time.

Bitcoin has chosen to introduce BIP-360, which will incorporate post-quantum signature algorithms like FALCON or CRYSTALS-Dilithium. Technically, it’s not complicated, but the challenge lies in consensus. Remember, the Bitcoin community has argued for years over a block size fork. Expecting them to quickly agree on a hard fork for quantum resistance is optimistic. But once the threat becomes more certain, even the most laid-back development community will have to push through with the patch.

That’s all.

Finally, an interesting point: Google used zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) to disclose this potential quantum threat, intentionally allowing a “soft landing.” After all, if it gets out of control, it’s not just blockchain that’s at risk—civilization on the internet could be devastated. Moreover, researchers from the Ethereum Foundation are involved in Google’s Quantum AI team. It’s possible that resistance to quantum attacks could become a mainstream narrative for blockchain, as cryptography is inherently part of its DNA. This new mission is very crypto!