Been watching the dollar really take off today - DXY jumped 1.29% to a 3.25-month high. Oil prices surged to an 8.5-month peak, which is pushing inflation expectations higher and basically killing any near-term Fed rate cut expectations. Money markets are now pricing only 37 basis points of cuts for the year, down from 60 basis points last Friday. That's a pretty significant shift in how traders are viewing Fed policy going forward.

The Fed speakers are basically confirming this stance. John Williams said cuts might come if inflation slows once tariff impacts fade, but Jeff Schmid was more hawkish - noting inflation's been above target for five years straight. Swap markets are only giving a 2% chance of a rate cut at the March meeting. So yeah, rate cut expectations have cooled considerably, which is obviously supporting the dollar today.

Euro's getting hammered in this environment - EUR/USD down 1.30% to a 3.25-month low. European natural gas prices just spiked 24% to a 3-year high, which is growth-negative for the Eurozone. Though the February CPI data came in stronger than expected (1.9% vs 1.7% forecast), the ECB's rate cut expectations are basically nonexistent now. Swaps show only 1% odds of a cut at their March meeting.

The yen's holding up a bit better than you'd think despite the dollar strength. USD/JPY only up 0.27%. Sure, crude oil surge hurts Japan's growth outlook, and their jobless rate ticked up unexpectedly to 2.7%, but capital spending came in strong at 7.3% y/y versus 3.9% expected. The Nikkei dropped 3% though, which created some safe-haven demand for yen. BOJ rate hike expectations are around 8% odds for their March meeting.

Gold and silver got absolutely crushed today - April gold down 5.04%, May silver down 9.14%, both hitting 1-week lows. The stronger dollar is the obvious headwind, plus global bond yields are climbing which pressures precious metals. You're also seeing forced selling as equities tumble and traders need to cover margin calls. That said, there's still underlying support from geopolitical risks and central bank buying. China's PBOC added another 40,000 ounces in January, hitting 74.19 million troy ounces for the fifteenth straight month of reserve increases. Gold ETF longs are still near 3.5-year highs, so fund demand remains pretty solid despite today's selloff.