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Been seeing a lot of chatter lately about when will market crash, and honestly, the data is starting to look pretty interesting. Just saw a Pew survey showing 72% of Americans are pretty pessimistic about the economy right now, with nearly 40% expecting things to get worse in the next year.
Now here's where it gets worth paying attention to. Two major valuation metrics are basically screaming that something could be brewing. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio is sitting around 40 right now. To put that in perspective, that's the highest we've seen since the dot-com bubble burst more than 25 years ago. The long-term average hangs around 17, so we're talking about something pretty extreme here.
Then there's the Buffett indicator, which looks at total U.S. stock market cap versus GDP. It's currently hovering around 219%. Back in 1999 and early 2000, when it hit around 200%, Warren Buffett literally said you'd be "playing with fire" at those levels. So yeah, we're already past that warning zone.
The thing is, nobody can actually predict exactly when will market crash happen or if it's even imminent. The market could keep grinding higher for months even if a correction is coming. But that doesn't mean you should just sit around hoping for the best.
What actually makes sense is thinking about your portfolio construction now. If you're holding solid, fundamentally sound companies with real earnings and strong balance sheets, you're in a much better position to weather whatever comes. When volatility hits, quality companies tend to hold up way better than the rest of the market.
Looking at the bigger picture, when will market crash probably depends on a lot of factors beyond just valuation metrics. But having a portfolio built on quality assets is basically your insurance policy. Ride out the storms, stay positioned for the long game, and you'll be fine.