Just been watching natural gas charts and it's looking pretty stretched right now. Hit the 200-day moving average but the RSI is screaming overbought, so I'm expecting a decent pullback before the next leg up. Thing is, timing this stuff is brutal without actually understanding weather patterns in the Northeast, which honestly nobody can predict accurately anyway.

I trimmed my UNG position earlier and took some profits off the table. The FX natural gas market moves on fundamentals way more than the technicals, so you can't just chart this one. What's different now is US drillers finally stopped bleeding money, and that's what's really driving things. If we get a dip toward $2, I'm definitely buying more of my ETF. Just make sure whatever natural gas ETF you use tracks Henry Hub, not Dubai contracts, because the fundamentals are completely different.

I'm not stressing the leverage game here since this is just a small portfolio piece anyway. Could rip to $3 and honestly it wouldn't change my life, but every bit adds up. The FX natural gas play is just about buying the dips and letting it ride. That's the whole strategy.