Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Mars Finance reports that Bitcoin rose to approximately $74,935 during Asian trading hours, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours, with a weekly increase of 5.4%. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. QCP Capital, an institutional firm, points out that this rally is mainly driven by spot trading rather than a broad increase in risk appetite. Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than being forced to close positions passively. The options market also shows caution: short-term implied volatility is low, with a one-month maturity below three months, and the risk reversal indicator suggests that market demand for downside protection exceeds upside bets, indicating traders are more willing to pay for potential declines rather than chase gains. QCP believes this is more of a “rebound” rather than a trend reversal. On the macro level, the long-term US Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a return of risk appetite; gold remains near high levels, showing that safe-haven demand still exists. The firm notes that the current market sentiment is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and “emotional recovery” rather than the resolution of core risks. Additionally, Ethereum is performing relatively strongly, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, coupled with on-chain trading volume and stablecoin supply reaching record highs, indicating capital rotation into high-beta assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this rally.