Bitunix Analyst: The risk of energy supply disruption has shifted to being controllable but not yet resolved, policy and corporate actions are beginning to show delayed responses, and the market has entered an asymmetric pricing phase.

Mars Finance reports that on April 16, the core market variable has shifted from “whether the war will escalate” to “whether risks are effectively priced in.” Signals from US-Iran negotiations have clearly strengthened, including discussions on extending the ceasefire, gradually clarifying negotiation timelines, and Iran signaling that shipping has not been fully interrupted, leading to a correction of the previously extreme supply shock expectations. However, the US has simultaneously intensified sanctions on Iran’s energy and financial systems, indicating that risks have not been eliminated but have shifted to a “manageable suppression” state. This structure is directly reflected in the pricing logic of the energy market— the abnormal premium of WTI over Brent crude oil is beginning to waver, showing that market expectations for an “actual deliverability premium” have slightly cooled, but spot shortages remain unresolved. More importantly, the significant reduction in OPEC production and the still-unrecovered shipping risks keep oil prices sticky on the upside, which also explains why the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have diverging policy statements: one emphasizes that inflation has not yet embedded expectations, while the other has begun to reserve space for potential price transmission.

Changes at the corporate level are becoming a new focus of observation. The Beige Book indicates that “uncertainty itself” has transformed into an economic constraint, with companies delaying investments, reducing hiring commitments, and shifting toward short-term labor, suggesting that demand has not collapsed but has entered a defensive mode. This structure means that even if energy prices remain high, their transmission to the overall economy will be “lagged and nonlinear,” increasing the risk of policy misjudgment.

Against this backdrop, the market has begun to show a typical “expectation correction” pattern—macroeconomic data such as PPI below expectations has not led to a clear improvement in risk appetite but has instead intertwined with IMF downward revisions of growth forecasts, causing funds to favor short-term speculation rather than medium-term allocation. This is also the reason for the recent extreme short squeeze in high-volatility assets like RAVE, which remains driven by liquidity structure rather than fundamental improvement.

Returning to the crypto market, BTC’s current operational logic remains a “risk tolerance test.” After entering the previous high supply zone, it encounters significant resistance around 75,500, with a concentration of liquidations near 76,000. Once triggered, this will amplify short-term momentum and test higher liquidity zones; but at the same time, a preliminary support structure has formed around 74,000, indicating that funds have not fully exited risk assets.

Overall, the market is not experiencing a return to unilateral risk preference but is in a phase of “macro risk marginal easing + unresolved structural pressures.” The short-term dominant factor is no longer the event itself but how it is re-priced and whether liquidity is willing to re-enter during the process of decreasing uncertainty.