Someone asked me whether RAVE has risen so much—can you still get in? My answer is: smart money never waits for a pullback to act. But now, the situation is a bit different.

When I looked a few days ago, the price was still above 0.57, with a 24-hour increase of over 25%, the long-short ratio at 1.32, and large holders still continuously adding positions. The funding rate of 0.0355% was positive—meaning the shorts are bleeding. This is a signal. The price is holding steadily above the 7-day line, and the trend looks strong. Open interest is also stable, with no sign of a large amount of capital fleeing. Based on the logic back then, there was still room for an upward move in the short term. Resistance levels were at 0.58 and 0.60; if it broke through, the targets would be 0.62-0.65.

But now it has turned into a crash. The latest data shows the price has already fallen to 14.15, with a 24-hour drop of -26%. Circulating supply has also surged from 2700 万 to 2.3 亿. This is the real bombe a retardement—i.e., a delayed/gradual release that ultimately turns into sell pressure. With the total supply at 1 billion tokens and the circulating ratio suddenly ramped up, this kind of unlocking pressure will keep hammering the market.

So now the position strategy has to change. The entry range of 0.565-0.575 that I mentioned before is already a thing of the past—now you should wait. The real opportunity may be at 0.52-0.54, or even lower. In the short term, don’t chase; keep your position light, and be strict with your stop-loss. This doesn’t mean the project has no prospects—Rave Casino has real revenue—but with this much pressure being released, it needs time to digest.

Remember one thing: when the market shifts from FOMO to fear, and from an incremental game to a stockpile/surplus game, position management becomes more important than the entry price. Wait until the wind passes, then make your move—don’t get trapped buying at the top.