Noticing an interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin's performance over the weekend often serves as a barometer for global risk sentiment. This weekend, the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel caused BTC to briefly touch $65,000 before quickly falling back to around $64,700, with lows even approaching $63,000.



Why is that? The key lies in Bitcoin being a 24/7 traded asset. When traditional markets are closed over the weekend, it becomes the main pressure valve for risk aversion sentiment. Stock, bond, and commodity markets are all shut, but the cryptocurrency market continues to operate. So when geopolitical risks suddenly flare up, all the sell orders tend to flood into Bitcoin.

Saturday's situation was indeed tense. Reports indicated that Iran's Hormozgan province was bombed, resulting in at least 70 casualties, including an elementary school being attacked. Subsequently, Iran launched a new round of missile strikes against Israel, which activated air raid alerts in Israel. All parties issued statements—NATO said they are closely monitoring, China called for an immediate ceasefire, and Turkey proactively offered to mediate.

Interestingly, although Bitcoin fell about 3%, considering the severity of the news, this decline isn't particularly sharp. This actually highlights a problem: the order book over the weekend is inherently thin, and the actual selling pressure might not be as large as it appears. However, this pressure valve role is indeed functioning—if these risk sentiments aren't released in the crypto market, they could cause even greater shocks to stocks and other traditional assets when markets open on Monday.

Looking at historical comparisons, this isn't the first time. On February 5th, Bitcoin experienced a similar panic, once dropping below $60,000. Whenever geopolitical risks erupt outside trading hours, Bitcoin is forced to act as this pressure valve, absorbing sell-offs that would otherwise flow into stocks, commodities, and currencies.

Trump told The Washington Post, "What I want is the freedom of the people," but the market is clearly digesting another risk—after the failure of Iran nuclear negotiations, U.S. military actions in the Middle East could escalate further. This involves one of the world's most sensitive economic regions, with impacts potentially far beyond our imagination.

The weekend timing is indeed unfriendly for traders. Although BTC ultimately stabilized around $64,700, as long as geopolitical uncertainties persist, this pressure valve role will continue. When the US trading session opens on Monday, we may see further volatility.
BTC0,64%
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