I noticed an interesting point in the market. Bitcoin suddenly started diverging from software sector stocks, even though they used to move almost in sync. This happened after February 28, when the conflict in Iran began. Over a few days, BTC gained more than 5%, trading above 69,000, while the IGV index, tracking major software companies like Microsoft and Oracle, fell by 2%. The correlation between them literally collapsed from nearly 1.0 in early February to 0.13. It then recovered slightly to 0.7, but the gap is obvious.

What is happening here? First, geopolitical uncertainty. When the risk increases against the backdrop of international conflicts, investors seek protection. Bitcoin appears more attractive in this sense than software stocks. Second, the software sector is currently under pressure. Investors are worried that artificial intelligence will squeeze margins and overvalue companies in this area, especially in SaaS. Competition is growing, barriers to entry are falling. Stocks are suffering.

Look at historical data. Over three months, BTC has fallen by 26%, while the software ETF lost 23%. Since the beginning of the year, both have decreased by about 21%. But over five years, BTC has grown by 18%, whereas IGV only by 10%. Cryptocurrency has always been more volatile. From its October all-time high, BTC has fallen about 50%, and IGV by 35%. The difference in stress reactions is clear.

Currently, BTC is trading at around 72.89K with nearly 1% gain over the day. It seems the market is rethinking Bitcoin’s role as a macro asset amid uncertainty. Software stocks may need to be reconsidered in the context of AI transformation. It will be interesting to see how long this gap lasts.