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Just saw the jobs report come in way worse than expected - U.S. actually lost 92,000 jobs in February when everyone was calling for 59,000 new ones added. Unemployment popped to 4.4% too. That kind of miss tends to get markets moving fast.
So naturally everything's been all over the place this morning. Bitcoin was already under pressure, now sitting around $72,800 as risk assets get hit. Stock futures are down - Nasdaq off about 1%, S&P down 0.8%. But here's where it gets interesting: Treasury yields actually fell hard (10-year dropped 4 basis points to 4.11%), which usually happens when people start thinking the Fed might have to cut rates sooner than expected. Oil's been the weird outlier, up 6.2% to $86 a barrel because of Middle East stuff, and gold and silver both rallied hard.
The real question now is whether this softens the Fed's stance. Before the report, markets were pricing in like 95% odds they hold rates steady at the March meeting and 85% chance no cut in April. But with labor market cooling this much, that calculus could shift. The challenge though is oil prices are spiking, which could push inflation higher if it sticks around. So the Fed's kind of stuck - weak jobs data usually means rate cuts, but rising energy costs usually means hold or hike. That tension is going to dominate how we trade this for the next few weeks.
Worth watching how the fed rate now gets priced in over the next few sessions. Usually takes a couple days for the full market repricing to play out after data like this.