April 11 Weekend BTC Market Analysis

This week experienced a rebound from 67,500 to around 73,500, approximately an 8% bounce. Next, I will analyze the market based on this week's macroeconomic situation, ETF capital flows, and technical analysis.

1. Overview of the current macroeconomic situation
The U.S. economy shows resilience but faces concerns of "stagflation":
Federal Reserve policy: The FOMC maintains the federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range; market forecasts indicate almost no room for rate cuts this year.
Inflation: Recently, crude oil prices surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, leading to higher CPI; core PCE is expected to average 2.7% in 2026, gradually falling back to 2% later.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF inflows and outflows

April 6: Net inflow of $471 million (the sixth-largest single-day inflow in 2026, second only to the February high).
April 9: Net inflow of $358.1 million.
April 10: Net inflow of $240.4 million (latest update).
BlackRock IBIT continues to lead (March 9: $269.3 million in a single day), followed by Fidelity FBTC, ARKB, and others.
Monthly and cumulative: March marked the first positive inflow month of 2026 (+$1.32 billion), ending four months of net outflows. Total net inflow has exceeded $56.7 billion.

Institutions are not engaging in short-term speculation but are steadily accumulating in the 70k-72k range. Even when small outflows occurred on April 7-8, they were quickly reversed by larger inflows, indicating a structural demand to "buy dips."

3. Technical analysis
Currently, on the daily chart, the rebound is not fully complete, but it faces resistance at the daily downtrend line. The key level to watch next is whether the price can hold above or break below 71,500. If it does not break below, oscillating around this level could lead to a breakout, aiming toward 74,600. Meanwhile, short-term risk should be monitored on the 1-hour chart, as this level shows ongoing divergence, suggesting short-term consolidation and a need for a correction or retest.
Support: 71,400-69,900
Resistance: 73,400-74,600-76,300

#BTC