Tesla's outlook remains strong, but valuation expectations have been adjusted.

Tesla’s information obtained from Gatonbei Xiang appears somewhat complex. The institution slightly raised its first-quarter delivery estimate, while lowering its target share price as the overall valuation of the tech sector declined.

The analyst currently expects Tesla to deliver about 370,000 vehicles in the first quarter, slightly higher than the previously estimated 367,700 vehicles, and maintains a buy rating for the stock. However, the target price was lowered from $520 to $420, mainly because the valuation multiple was reduced from 46 times the expected earnings for 2028 to 37 times, keeping in line with the current valuation levels of other large technology stocks.

In terms of demand, the situation is still uneven. The Chinese market remains weak, while the U.S. and Europe markets are improving but not yet strong. Other regions around the world are performing better, and there are some positive factors, such as rising prices for Tesla used cars, and potentially stronger demand if oil prices remain at high levels.

In the long term, the analyst has not changed its view of Tesla’s fundamentals. Electric vehicles are still considered the core driving force, but market attention to areas such as autonomous driving, robots, and the Terafab project is also increasing. The Terafab project aims to significantly scale up AI computing power by 2027.

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Responsible editor: Zhang Jun SF065