National Bureau of Statistics: China's February official manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month

1. China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Operating Situation

In February, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in manufacturing activity.

Looking at enterprise size, large enterprises’ PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, above the threshold; medium and small enterprises’ PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8%, respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points from last month, below the threshold.

From the perspective of sub-indices, all five component indices—Production, New Orders, Raw Material Inventories, Employment, and Supplier Delivery Times—were below the threshold.

The Production Index was 49.6%, down 1.0 percentage point, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities.

The New Orders Index was 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in market demand.

The Raw Material Inventory Index was 47.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight narrowing of raw material stock depletion.

The Employment Index was 48.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decrease in employment activity.

The Supplier Delivery Times Index was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points, showing that supplier delivery times have slowed compared to last month.

2. China’s Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Operating Situation

In February, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating a slight improvement in non-manufacturing activity.

By industry, the Construction Business Activity Index was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points; the Services Business Activity Index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. In the service sector, industries such as accommodation, catering, and cultural and sports entertainment all had business activity indices above 60.0%, in high activity zones; capital market services and real estate had indices below the threshold.

The New Orders Index was 45.2%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand in the non-manufacturing sector. By industry, the Construction New Orders Index was 42.2%, up 2.1 percentage points; the Service New Orders Index was 45.7%, down 1.4 percentage points.

The Input Prices Index was 50.9%, up 0.9 percentage points, showing an overall increase in input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises. Industry-wise, the Construction Input Prices Index was 49.1%, down 2.9 points; the Service Input Prices Index was 51.2%, up 1.5 points.

The Selling Prices Index was 48.8%, unchanged from last month, still below the threshold, indicating that overall selling prices in the non-manufacturing sector remain lower than last month. Industry-wise, the Construction Selling Prices Index was 47.6%, down 0.6 points; the Service Selling Prices Index was 49.0%, up 0.1 points.

The Employment Index was 46.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment activity. Industry-wise, Construction Employment was 42.5%, up 1.4 points; Service Employment was 46.6%, down 0.4 points.

The Business Activity Expectations Index was 55.0%, down 1.0 percentage points but still in a relatively high confidence zone, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remain optimistic about market prospects. Industry-wise, Construction Expectations was 50.9%, up 1.1 points; Service Expectations was 55.8%, down 1.3 points.

3. China’s Composite PMI Output Index Operating Situation

In February, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating a general slowdown in overall enterprise production and operation activities.

Notes

1. Explanation of Key Indicators

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a composite index compiled from monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers, covering procurement, production, circulation, etc., in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It is a leading indicator widely used internationally to monitor macroeconomic trends, with strong predictive and warning functions. The Composite PMI Output Index reflects the overall change in output across all industries (manufacturing and non-manufacturing). A PMI above 50% indicates expansion compared to the previous month; below 50% indicates contraction.

2. Survey Scope

Includes 31 major industry categories in the “National Economic Industry Classification” (GB/T 4754-2017), with 3,200 survey samples for manufacturing; 43 industry categories in non-manufacturing, with 4,300 samples.

3. Survey Methodology

The survey of purchasing managers uses PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling, stratified by industry category, with sample sizes allocated according to their contribution to total added value. Within each stratum, samples are selected proportionally to enterprise main business revenue.

This survey is organized and implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics’ direct survey team, using the national statistical online reporting system to conduct monthly questionnaires with enterprise purchasing managers.

4. Calculation Methods

(1) Calculation of sub-indices: The manufacturing PMI includes 13 sub-indices such as Production, New Orders, Export Orders, Backlog of Orders, Finished Goods Inventories, Purchasing, Imports, Raw Material Purchase Prices, Factory Prices, Raw Material Inventories, Employment, Supplier Delivery Times, and Business Expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI includes 10 sub-indices like Business Activity, New Orders, Export Orders, Backlog, Inventories, Input Prices, Selling Prices, Employment, Supplier Delivery Times, and Business Expectations. Sub-indices are calculated using the diffusion index method: the percentage of positive responses plus half the percentage of unchanged responses. Since non-manufacturing does not have a composite index, the global standard is to use the Business Activity Index to reflect overall economic changes.

(2) Calculation of manufacturing PMI: It is a weighted average of five diffusion indices—New Orders (30%), Production (25%), Employment (20%), Supplier Delivery Times (15%), and Raw Material Inventories (10%). The Supplier Delivery Times index is inverted in the calculation.

(3) Calculation of the Composite PMI Output Index: It is a weighted sum of the manufacturing Production Index and the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index, with weights based on their respective shares of GDP.

5. Seasonal Adjustment

As a monthly survey influenced by seasonal factors, the published indices are seasonally adjusted to reduce volatility.

Statistical Bureau Interpretation: Manufacturing PMI Slightly Declined in February; Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Slightly Recovered

On March 4, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released China’s PMI. Chief Statistician Huo Lihui provided the interpretation.

In February, due to factors like the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 points; the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 points; and the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 points.

1. Manufacturing PMI Slightly Declined

In February, the PMI was 49.0%, indicating a decrease in activity. Historically, PMI tends to fluctuate around the Spring Festival month, especially this year with an extended holiday period in late February, affecting production and business operations, leading to a general decline in market activity.

(1) Both production and demand slowed. The Production Index was 49.6%, and the New Orders Index was 48.6%, down 1.0 and 0.6 points respectively, showing a slowdown in manufacturing and market demand. Industry-wise, sectors like agricultural and sideline food processing, and computer, communication, and electronic equipment maintained expansion; while textiles, apparel, and automotive sectors remained below the threshold, indicating weaker activity.

(2) Large enterprises’ PMI continued to expand. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.2 points, showing sustained expansion; small and medium enterprises’ PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8%, down 1.2 and 2.6 points, respectively, reflecting a decline.

(3) Growth momentum in high-tech manufacturing persisted. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, well above the overall manufacturing level, indicating good development trends; consumer goods PMI was 48.8%, up 0.5 points; equipment manufacturing and high-energy-consuming industries PMI were 49.8% and 47.8%, down slightly, showing some decline.

(4) Business expectations improved. The Business Expectations Index was 53.2%, up 0.6 points, indicating increased confidence post-holiday. Industries like general equipment, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and aviation had expectations above 56%, showing optimism.

2. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Slightly Recovered

In February, the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 points, indicating a slight improvement.

(1) Service sector activity rebounded. The Service Business Activity Index was 49.7%, up 0.2 points. Driven by holiday effects, sectors like accommodation, catering, and cultural and sports entertainment saw activity indices above 60%; retail and air transportation also rose above 52%. Capital market services and real estate remained low. Business activity expectations in services were 55.8%, still optimistic.

(2) Construction activity declined. Due to holiday-related workforce return and project suspensions, the Construction Business Activity Index was 48.2%, down 0.6 points. Expectations for future activity were 50.9%, up 1.1 points, indicating regained confidence.

3. Composite PMI Output Index Declined

The Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 points, reflecting a slowdown in overall enterprise production and operations. It comprises the manufacturing Production Index (49.6%) and non-manufacturing Business Activity Index (49.5%).

(Article source: National Bureau of Statistics)