【US-Israel-Iran War Cheat Sheet】Understand the Middle East chaos and its impact on oil prices, gold prices, stock markets, and the economy (ongoing updates)

On February 28, 2026, a devastating turning point erupted in the Middle East situation. The United States, in alliance with Israel, launched a large-scale airstrike codenamed “Roaring Lion,” severely damaging Iran’s Tehran and nuclear facilities. Subsequently, Iran launched a counterattack called “Truthful Promise 4,” striking multiple U.S. military bases, including the Bahrain Fifth Fleet. With the death of Khamenei and ongoing fighting, global capital markets experienced intense turbulence. This article provides a comprehensive update on the latest developments in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, along with in-depth analysis of its impact on international oil prices, stock markets, and corporate supply chains.

Latest Developments in the US-Israel-Iran Conflict:【Click here】

Table of Contents

				*   					Oil and Natural Gas
					
				*   					Gold Prices
					
				*   					Capital Markets
					
				*   					Economy
					
				*   					Companies
					
		

			Show All 
			Hide Sections 

Oil and Natural Gas

【March 3】

HSBC Asset Management: If oil prices break above $100, two factors will limit the momentum; currently, this is not the start of a new supercycle in oil

Monica Defend, head of investment research at HSBC Asset Management, stated that unless the Strait of Hormuz transportation is blocked, oil prices are unlikely to stabilize above $100. Paradoxically, once oil prices surpass $100, “demand destruction” and recession risks will quickly curb the upward trend. Therefore, the bank considers this a short-term stagflation shock rather than the beginning of a new oil supercycle.

Concerns over global oil supply disruptions intensify; analysis suggests which country will be most affected, with reserves lasting only 20 to 25 days

Multiple attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters have raised fears of a global oil supply disruption. Analysts believe India, as a rapidly growing oil consumer, will be most impacted in this potential long-term supply crisis, with reports indicating reserves can only last 20 to 25 days.

Oil prices rose another 1% early on; analysis: the conflict is unlikely to last long; NY crude oil futures at $70–75, gold prices to retreat after easing of the conflict

Tensions in Iran remain high, with international oil prices rising another 1% early. NY crude futures surpassed $72 again, and Brent crude approached $80.

Liu Biao: Plans to curb soaring oil prices; reports suggest the Trump administration currently has no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken announced that a plan to mitigate rising energy costs caused by the Iran conflict will be implemented tomorrow.

【March 2】

JPMorgan: If the Strait of Hormuz is fully blocked, Middle Eastern oil producers could be forced to halt production within 25 days; supply chain disruptions could intensify global inflation

JPMorgan warned in a recent report that a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to conflict lasting 25 days would exhaust storage capacities of major Middle Eastern oil producers, forcing them to suspend production. This would escalate from price volatility to actual supply chain disruptions, posing significant threats to global energy prices, inflation, and macroeconomics.

Amundi: China is Iran’s largest oil buyer; short-term supply disruptions will have limited economic impact; oil prices expected to decline from recent highs within about a week

Michael Langham, senior economist at Amundi for emerging markets, believes that if U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue for several days to a week, Iran’s missile and drone retaliatory capabilities will quickly weaken. The Iranian regime will suffer heavy damage but remain resilient, with internal opposition eventually suppressed. Oil prices are expected to fall from recent highs in about a week.

JH Henderson Investment: Current oil prices reflect a “limited scale, short duration” conflict scenario

JH Henderson noted that the rise in oil prices driven by U.S.-led military actions reflects a conflict of limited scope. Unless the situation escalates further and persists, the broader investment impact remains manageable.

Lyon expects geopolitical tensions to push oil prices to $80; favorable for PetroChina and CNOOC

Lyon’s report states that ongoing Iran crisis could push oil prices above $80 per barrel in the short term.

Goldman Sachs: If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a month, European natural gas prices could surge by 130%, with crude oil rising by $15 at worst

The Strait of Hormuz is critical to global energy, carrying nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies. Goldman Sachs’s comprehensive assessment indicates that a one-month LNG supply cutoff in the Strait could cause European natural gas prices to spike by 130%.

Oil prices surge amid Iran crisis; Brent crude up over 8%; Strait of Hormuz halted

The U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran has caused turmoil in the global oil market. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with NY crude rising 7.9% to $72.37, and Brent crude up 8.6% to $79.17.

【February 28】

OPEC+: In April, increase oil supply by 206,000 barrels per day, exceeding the level of the last quarter of 2023; reports cite US-Iran conflict as a key factor

After the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday (March 1), the organization announced that, based on stable global economic outlook and solid market fundamentals, oil supply will increase by 206,000 barrels daily in April.

Gold Prices

【March 2】

Gold prices rose over 2%, back above $5,400; Middle East conflict sparks safe-haven demand

Gold and silver prices surged amid the Iran crisis, with the Middle East war shaking markets. Investors flocked to safer assets. Gold gained 2.5% to $5,414, and silver rose 2% to $95.6.

Capital Markets

【March 3】

Oil price rally boosts oil and related stocks; Bank of America sharply raises target for CNOOC by 40%

Hong Kong oil-related stocks performed well, with CNOOC (00883) and PetroChina (00857) rising. Oilfield service stocks saw even larger gains, with Sinopec Oilfield (01033) up over 30%, reaching a decade high. CNOOC Services (02883) also rose for the second consecutive day, hitting a six-year high.

South Korea’s stock market drops over 7% after holiday; Hyundai Motor and SK Hynix fall over 11%

KOSPI, South Korea’s main index, fell 452 points or 7.2% on reopening after the holiday, closing at 5,791, the largest single-day drop in 19 months, affected by Iran crisis.

【March 2】

Kumho Asset Management’s Su Peifeng: Short-term impact of Middle East tensions may pressure China and Hong Kong stocks; market may dip first, then rebound in March

Senior trader Su Peifeng from Kumho Asset Management analyzed that the Iran-Israel conflict could persist, negatively affecting risk assets in the short term. Chinese and Hong Kong markets may face downward pressure.

UAE stock markets closed for two days; government announces full coverage of stranded travelers’ expenses

The UAE Securities and Commodities Authority announced that Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market will be closed on March 2 and 3.

Economy

【March 3】

Franklin Templeton CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, conflict unlikely to last more than five weeks

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson said that without large-scale retaliations, the Iran-U.S. conflict probably won’t last more than five weeks.

Yellen: Iran crisis impacts US economy and inflation; Fed more reluctant to cut rates

Former Fed Chair and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the Iran war will affect the U.S. economy and inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates. The specific impact depends on how long the conflict’s effects on the oil market last.

【March 2】

Swiss franc hits over 11-year high against euro; Swiss National Bank signals readiness to intervene to prevent franc overappreciation

Amid ongoing conflict, investors seek safe assets. EUR/CHF fell to 0.9037 on Monday, the lowest since the 2015 “Franc Storm.” The Swiss National Bank indicated in a statement that it is prepared to intervene more actively due to international developments.

Japanese yen depreciates 0.9% against USD; USD/JPY at 147.0; BoJ Deputy Governor Noda emphasizes focus on Middle East, no clear rate hike signals

BoJ Deputy Governor Noda said in a speech in Wakayama that the Bank will closely monitor Middle East developments. No clear signals on rate hikes were given.

Allianz’s El-Erian warns: Supply chain disruptions could push energy prices higher; stagflation crisis looms globally

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist at Allianz, warned in the Financial Times that U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict could deepen stagflation risks, complicating central banks’ monetary policies. He noted that some signs of supply chain issues have already appeared after recent airstrikes, with serious risks of new disruptions worldwide.

Middle East conflict disrupts energy markets; economists warn of added risks to the global economy; several countries most affected…

Economists warn that escalating tensions could severely disrupt energy supplies, adding new risks to the already fragile global economy.

Cathay Pacific temporarily suspends flights to Dubai and Riyadh

Cathay Pacific (00293) announced that, due to the latest developments in the Middle East, all flights to and from Dubai from February 28 to March 5 have been canceled. Flights to and from Riyadh from February 28 to March 3 are also canceled.

Companies

【March 3】

Cathay Pacific cancels flights to Riyadh and Dubai until March 14

Cathay Pacific (00293) announced that, due to the latest Middle East developments, all flights to and from Riyadh and Dubai from February 28 to March 14 (inclusive) are canceled.

【March 2】

Claude + Palantir + SpaceX: Three “AI weapons” targeting Khamenei?

The U.S. and Israel’s large-scale military operation “Epic Fury” against Iran resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei. Reports suggest this is the first “kill chain” in history with high AI involvement, supported by three U.S. tech giants—Anthropic, Palantir (PLTR), and SpaceX. However, no official confirmation has been given, and final decisions are still human.

HSBC drops nearly 50%, Standard Chartered falls 6%; JPMorgan: Standard Chartered’s high Middle East exposure may lead to larger declines; Chinese banks likely resilient

JPMorgan expects that banks with high regional exposure, like Standard Chartered (02888), will see larger corrections, while HSBC (00005) also declines. Chinese banks, with minimal exposure and flexible policies, are likely to outperform regional peers.

Luobo Kuai Pao temporarily suspends autonomous vehicle testing in UAE

Baidu (09888)’s Luobo Kuai Pao has temporarily halted autonomous vehicle testing in the UAE. Commercial autonomous services in Abu Dhabi remain operational.

Meituan Keeta: Monitoring Middle East situation; may suspend services in certain countries if needed

Meituan (03690)’s Keeta said it is closely watching the Middle East situation. The safety of riders, merchants, users, and staff is the top priority. If necessary, services in specific areas may be temporarily restricted or suspended to ensure community safety, with rapid response plans in place.

Amazon AWS: UAE data center hit by fire; AWS reports impact from unidentified object collision

Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced that its UAE data center was struck by an unidentified object, causing a fire and temporary power outage.