[US Stock Market Close] Trump offers insurance guarantees + Navy escort for oil tankers, Dow Jones only drops 403 points (updating)

Day 4 of the Iran war: The stock market moves in tandem with news of the Iran conflict. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices once surged 9.5%, reaching a high of $77.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped as much as 1,277 points or 2.6%, hitting a low of 47,626 points. The S&P 500 fell 2.5% to 6,710 points, and the Nasdaq declined 2.7% to 22,124 points.

See the US stock market close:

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Trump announced that he has arranged insurance guarantees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which could restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. The stock market’s decline narrowed, with the Dow ending down only 403 points or 0.8%, closing at 48,501. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 6,816, and the Nasdaq declined 1% to 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close, with New York crude at $74.65 and Brent crude at $81.72.

Trump posted on social platform Truth Social that he has ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade (especially energy) passing through the Gulf region. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also indicated that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure that energy supplies to the world can flow freely. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The US dollar index briefly rose 1.3%, then settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%.

Gold prices continued to decline, down 4.3% at $5,094.87, silver fell 8% to $82.23.

Manulife believes that the recent rise in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries about future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict persists for more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Swiss Pictet Wealth Management said that in the very short term, the Iran war will negatively impact stocks due to increased geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. However, history shows that such events’ negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm noted that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could return to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would be limited. However, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Federal Reserve might delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the U.S.'s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets might see the U.S. as more resilient than Asian countries that heavily depend on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated; see the next page for details.

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Market movements:

【13:27】 Dow futures down 336 points, at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points, at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 2.15% or 215 points, at 24,809.

【11:41】【Iran Crisis】Franklin D. Roosevelt CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, the conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices rose another 1% early on. Analysis: The conflict is expected to be short-lived; New York crude hovers between $70-75, gold prices will likely retreat after the war subsides.

【10:50】【AI+Competition】OpenAI users launch a boycott; Anthropic Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becoming the top app on the US Apple App Store.

【10:46】【AI+Defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense to clarify AI cannot be used for monitoring U.S. citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence agencies.

【10:36】【US Tariffs】U.S. Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can proceed quickly.

【10:10】【AI Frontline】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly plan to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debts.

【09:02】【Iran Crisis】Liu Biao: Plans to curb oil prices; Trump administration reportedly has no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves.

【08:39】【Fed Rate Cuts】Yellen: Iran crisis impacts U.S. economy and inflation; likely to make the Fed more cautious about cutting rates.

【08:19】【U.S. Economy】JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a “party pooper” for the U.S. economy after the “cockroach theory.”

【08:08】【AI+NVIDIA Chips】US considers restricting NVIDIA H200 chips, with a limit of 75,000 units per Chinese company.

【07:25】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Four main targets in Iran; U.S. Department of Defense reports firing tens of thousands of missiles in two days, including ground-penetrating missiles launched from the U.S. (updating continuously).

Below $1: US stock market overview on March 2====

Monday: Trump says the conflict is progressing far ahead of schedule; Nasdaq rises 0.4%; Anthropic’s “crash” causes NVIDIA’s stock to jump 3%.

Due to many users switching from OpenAI to Anthropic, Anthropic experienced a crash. Since Anthropic is mainly paid, the crash reflects strong growth in paying users, potentially boosting revenue, but also indicates insufficient computing power. Nvidia (US: NVDA) surged 3%, closing at $182.48, boosting the Nasdaq.

See the US stock market close:

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Trump held a press conference stating that the initial estimate for the war was 4 to 5 weeks, but the current progress is far ahead of schedule. For example, they initially estimated it would take four weeks to dismantle Iran’s military leadership, but in reality, the U.S. achieved this in about an hour. Overall, the progress has exceeded expectations. However, he did not set a time limit, saying, “It doesn’t matter how long it takes. Whatever is needed, we will do it.”

Israel and the U.S. continue bombing. Due to the ongoing war, European and Middle Eastern countries are mediating a ceasefire, reducing war risk premiums. The US dollar index rose 1% to 98.55. Gold prices once surged 2.7%, reaching a high of $5,419.11, then closed up 0.9% at $5,325. Silver plummeted 7.7% to $86.54. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high at 4.03%.

Amid the war, the Dow fell as much as 599 points, hitting a low of 48,377, then closed down 73 points at 48,904. The S&P 500 rose 2 points to 6,881, and the Nasdaq gained 0.4% to 22,748.

Oil prices surged, with Brent crude up 13%, reaching $82.37, then closing up 7.2% at $78.12. NY crude rose 12.4%, hitting $75.33, then closed up 6.4% at $71.33.

In terms of stocks, global turbulence weighed on most, but Palantir (US: PLTR) surged 5.8% as its Ontology technology integrated satellite imagery and communication monitoring data, greatly improving decision-making during the US-Iran conflict.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the timing of military actions against Tehran will be decided by President Trump.

Invesco’s Benjamin Jones expects that stocks will decline in the short term after the conflict, but the future trend depends on how the situation develops. Most impacts are expected to be reflected through rising oil prices. Cyclical and consumer sectors may be hit hardest, while defense, energy, and gold mining stocks are likely to benefit from this geopolitical turmoil.

Key data this week will include the February unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated; see the next page for details.

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Market movements:

【22:30】 Iran crisis drags stocks down; Dow drops 495 points; Nasdaq down 1.3%; Palantir up 3% against the trend.

【18:10】 Iran crisis causes Dow futures to fall 570 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.3%; oil surges 10%; gold back above $5,400.

【15:44】 NY crude up 8.6%, at $72.79; Brent crude down 9.1%, at $79.49.

【15:28】 Dow futures down 640 points, at 48,360; S&P futures down 94 points, at 6,794; Nasdaq futures down 438 points or 1.8%, at 24,566.

【12:31】 Dow futures down 369 points, at 48,631; S&P futures down 50 points, at 6,838; Nasdaq futures down 206 points or 0.8%, at 24,798.

【11:52】【Iran Crisis】Jungli Henderson Investment: Current oil prices reflect a “limited scale, short duration” conflict scenario.

【11:48】【Iran Crisis】UAE stock market closed for two days; UAE government announces full coverage of stranded travelers’ expenses.

【11:25】【Iran Crisis】Middle Eastern conflict disrupts energy markets; economists warn of increased global economic risks; the most affected countries…

【10:50】【Iran Crisis】If the Strait of Hormuz closes for a month, Goldman Sachs warns European natural gas prices could surge 130%, and crude oil could rise by $15 at worst.

【10:09】【Major Banks’ Views】UBS cuts US stock ratings to “in line with the market” for six reasons; continues to favor emerging markets and four key countries.

【08:06】【Oil Price Trend】Iran crisis causes oil prices to soar; Brent crude up over 8%; Strait of Hormuz halt.

【07:50】【Gold Price Trend】Gold rises nearly 2%, back above $5,300; silver up over 2%, as Middle East war sparks safe-haven buying.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Bloomberg estimates oil could rise 49%; Trump: Qasem Soleimani and three Americans dead, fighting continues until goals are achieved (updating constantly).

【07:30】【Weekly Outlook】Focus on geopolitical developments and US employment data; February unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%.

【07:30】US stocks declined last Friday. Financial stocks plunged; American Express down 8%, Goldman Sachs down 7%, dragging the Dow down 521 points to 48,977; S&P down 0.4% to 6,878; AI stocks remain under pressure, with NVIDIA down 4%, dragging Nasdaq down 0.9% to 22,668.

See the US stock market close:

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