【Oil Crisis Analysis】Strait of Hormuz Blocked by Iran, Are Asian Countries Facing an Oil Crisis Now?

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed on Monday (the 3rd) to have blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off nearly 20% of global oil supplies, which continues to drive up oil prices. For Asian regions dependent on imported Middle Eastern oil, prolonged conflict could trigger supply issues. If the blockade lasts more than 30 days, more countries may face severe challenges.

How long can strategic oil reserves last?

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry data shows that although dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year in January, it still accounts for 95.1%. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Sato emphasized in the House of Representatives that the country has 254 days of oil reserves.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno later added that out of the 254 days of oil reserves, 146 days are national reserves, 101 days are private reserves, and 7 days are joint reserves with oil-producing countries. Power and gas companies hold about three weeks of liquefied natural gas inventories.

South Korean officials revealed on Monday (the 2nd) that the country’s oil reserves can support 208 days. Like Japan, South Korea produces almost no crude oil domestically and relies on imports for over 70% of its oil needs.

Severe Reserve Situations in Southeast Asia

China imported about 5.4 million barrels of crude oil daily from the Middle East in the first quarter last year, over 10% higher than the 4.8 million barrels per day in 2024. However, foreign media pointed out that China’s domestic oil inventories have continued to rise last year, with current crude oil reserves estimated at over 1.3 billion barrels, equivalent to more than four months of reserves, providing a strong buffer against a significant drop in imports.

In contrast, the situation in Southeast Asia is more concerning. Reuters cited analysis indicating that about 55% of India’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East, with an average daily import of 2.74 million barrels. As the U.S. intensifies sanctions on Russian energy exports, Indian refineries have reduced purchases from Russia, significantly increasing dependence on Middle Eastern oil.

Although India’s oil minister last month stated that the country’s crude and fuel reserves could last about 74 days, industry insiders revealed that actual usable stockpiles might only support 20 to 25 days.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. also stated that the country’s oil reserves could sustain about 50 to 60 days.

Thailand’s Ministry of Energy on Sunday noted that the current oil reserves can meet domestic demand for approximately 61 days. If the Iran conflict escalates and spreads to other Middle Eastern countries, the government will seek alternative sources to ensure energy reserves.