View: Arthur Hayes: Prolonged U.S.–Iran Tensions Could Boost Bitcoin



founder and macro visionary Arthur Hayes is weighing in on the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. In his latest essay, Hayes argues that prolonged military engagement (including nation-building costs under the Trump administration) fits a historical pattern: major U.S. Middle East adventures lead to Federal Reserve easing — rate cuts, money printing, and lower money costs to fund it all.

He predicts this "Pax Americana" spending spree will devalue fiat over time, making hard assets like Bitcoin a prime beneficiary. History shows wars in the region often trigger Fed accommodation, which has been bullish for BTC in the long run. Amid oil surges and geopolitical risks, Hayes sees this as another contrarian bull case for crypto as a hedge against endless fiat expansion.

Thoughts on how long the tensions last? Hayes says the longer, the better for Bitcoin holders.

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