Opinion: The Iran conflict this time has a detrimental impact on oil prices but is not an upheaval, and is unlikely to trigger an oil crisis.

ChainCatcher News, Bloomberg Energy and Commodities Columnist Javier Blas wrote that Iran’s attack has a severe impact on oil prices but is not an shock.

Blas’s article points out that the market’s biggest concern is whether both sides will target energy infrastructure and the forced closure of oil tanker routes. Neither has happened yet. Currently, there are no such incidents. Despite fears that Iran might set fire to Middle Eastern energy facilities, targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, Tehran has not yet turned oil into a weapon. Israel and the U.S. have also not targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Analysis suggests that oil prices will surge, but even the most bullish traders are talking about prices possibly reaching $100 per barrel, well below the $139 per barrel seen after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the record $147.50 per barrel in 2008. From a broad perspective, this Middle Eastern conflict is unlikely to trigger an oil shock.

Additionally, although physical markets have remained weak, financial oil markets have been bullish, with traders rushing to buy oil in anticipation of rising prices. A year ago, the 12-day war between Israel, the U.S., and Iran caught many traders off guard, triggering a wave of buying that sent crude prices soaring. This time, the number of bullish positions is among the highest in the past decade. Therefore, oil traders are better prepared to absorb this crisis.