Major assets are skyrocketing! Middle East tensions trigger global market fluctuations! U.S. Central Command's latest response

Middle East tensions trigger global market volatility!

Just now, domestic commodity futures opened with fuel oil, LU fuel oil, and main crude oil contracts hitting the daily limit. Shanghai silver rose over 8%, methanol nearly 7%, asphalt over 6%, liquefied gas over 5%, Shanghai gold and plastics up more than 3%.

Additionally, the Baltic Dry Index futures main contract opened high and moved higher, once hitting the daily limit (15% increase). As of 9:30, the futures contract was still nearly 12% higher. In the international commodities market, WTI crude oil futures rose nearly 7%, Brent crude oil over 7%. Earlier, international oil prices surged, with WTI futures once up over 11%, and Brent futures over 13%.

Analysts point out that unless there are clear signs of easing in Middle East tensions, volatility in crude oil, gold, forex, and global stocks will continue to rise over the next week.

Just recently, new developments came from Iran and the US. According to CCTV News, on March 1 local time, the U.S. Central Command issued a statement denying Iran’s claims of significant US military casualties in the Middle East. Previously, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that Iran’s retaliatory actions had caused 560 US military casualties.

Multiple main contracts hit the daily limit

This morning, in domestic commodity futures, fuel oil, LU fuel oil, and main crude oil contracts hit the daily limit. The Baltic Dry Index futures main contract also once reached the daily limit (15% increase). Additionally, Shanghai silver rose over 8%, methanol nearly 7%, asphalt over 6%.

As the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran causes turmoil in the global oil market, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, causing the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures to drop over 1% during trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index also fell 0.4% after trading began. Currently, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declines have narrowed to less than 0.5%.

The potential long-term instability in the Middle East and the chain reaction of rising oil prices are providing new reasons for fund managers to sell stocks and shift to safe-haven assets. Globally, stock and credit valuations are generally high, making investors more prone to risk reduction.

Derek Malaki, Managing Director at SLC Management, said, “All of this is happening at a fragile moment, and investors are becoming more cautious. The US stock market is already very sensitive to technological disruptions and emerging credit pressures, so the prospect of rising commodity prices may force investors to cut risk, leading to sell-offs.”

Citigroup analyst Arifumi Yoshida stated that the rise in oil prices caused by US and Israeli attacks on Iran could harm Japanese auto parts suppliers. In his report, Yoshida wrote that a sharp increase in oil prices would negatively impact tire manufacturers like Bridgestone, Yokohama Rubber, and Sumitomo Rubber in Q3-Q4. He said, “In the short term, this is bearish for tire stocks because it lowers the earnings outlook for this fiscal year.”

Automaker stocks are also vulnerable to macroeconomic factors, rising gasoline prices, and increases in petroleum raw material costs. Japan’s Isuzu, which exports to the Middle East, may become a market concern. However, hybrid vehicle (HEV) manufacturers could benefit from higher gasoline prices due to their fuel efficiency advantages.

US military casualties? CENTCOM denies

According to CCTV News, on the evening of March 1 local time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued “Real Commitment 4” Operation No. 8, claiming Iran’s retaliatory actions had caused 560 US military casualties.

However, on March 1, US Central Command posted a “Fact Check” statement on social media denying Iran’s claims of major US casualties in the Middle East.

CCTV reports that on March 1, Iran’s side reported that during the missile attack on the UAE on February 28, a CIA officer’s residence was targeted, resulting in the death of six senior CIA officials and injuries to two others. The US has not responded to this yet.

Additionally, on March 1, Iran’s IRGC announced that it had shot down 20 “Hermes” drones (Iran’s term for “Kamikaze” drones) and 2 US MQ-9 drones.

Later that night, Iran’s IRGC announced the start of the ninth round of “Real Commitment 4” operations targeting Israel and US interests in the region.

On the evening of March 1, Israel’s Defense Forces reported detecting a new missile attack launched by Iran, with sirens sounding in Jerusalem and surrounding areas. The IDF said they are working to intercept.

Notably, on March 1, the UK reported a strong explosion at the Akrotiri Royal Air Force Base in southern Cyprus.

Following US and Israeli military actions against Iran, major US cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Phoenix have increased law enforcement patrols in key areas, including religious sites and community centers. Officials say no credible threats have been identified so far, and law enforcement agencies are coordinating with state and federal authorities to monitor the situation closely.

Multiple Iranian military commanders confirmed dead

CCTV reports that on the night of March 1, Iran confirmed the death of several military commanders, including: Mohammad Helalizadeh, head of the Supreme Leader’s Military Office; Salih Asadi, Deputy Chief of Intelligence at the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff; Mohammad Darebaji, Deputy Minister of Logistics and Support; Akbar Ebrahimsadeh, Deputy Director of the General Staff Office; Gholam Reza Rezaian, Director of Intelligence at the Police Force; Bahram Hosseini Motallekh, Director of Operations Planning and Operations Bureau at the General Staff; and Hassan Ali Tajik, Director of the Preparedness and Support Bureau.

On March 1, US Central Command posted on social media that it had conducted a large-scale strike destroying the IRGC headquarters, claiming “the IRGC no longer has a headquarters.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian on March 1 stated that US and Israeli attacks caused Iran to lose some commanders, but Iran’s military capability remains unchanged. Compared to the clashes in June last year, Iran can now respond more quickly.

When asked if negotiations with the US are still possible, Abdollahian expressed skepticism, calling recent US-Iran nuclear talks a “very painful experience.” He said Iran was engaged in negotiations with the US during the attacks last June and believed progress was being made. He accused those “opposing peace” of sabotaging diplomatic efforts.

(Source: Securities Times)