JPMorgan Outlook: U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill Expected to Pass by Mid-Year — Analyzing Eight Key Changes

March 1, 2026, JPMorgan’s analyst team released a report stating that although current crypto market sentiment is weak, U.S. market structure legislation is expected to be approved by mid-year and could serve as a positive catalyst for the market in the second half of the year. This view provides a logical anchor amid regulatory expectations swings and institutional cautiousness. This article will examine this potential shift from multiple perspectives, including legislative timeline, key data, public opinion divergence, and industry impact.

JPMorgan Prediction: Market Structure Bill Could Be a Turning Point in the Second Half

According to a report from JPMorgan’s analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou), they maintain an optimistic outlook on the crypto market and believe the Market Structure Bill (the CLARITY Act) may be approved before mid-year. The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. The analysts emphasize that if passed, it will reshape the market structure by providing regulatory clarity, ending “enforcement-style regulation,” advancing tokenization, and encouraging institutional participation.

As of March 2, 2026, according to Gate data, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $66,175.3, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.02 billion, a market cap of $1.33 trillion, and a market share of 55.26%. Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $1,950.56, with a 24-hour trading volume of $496.15 million, a market cap of $243.19 billion, and a market share of 10.00%.

Two Years of Legislative Battles: From House Passage to Senate Deadlock

The legislative process has experienced a long struggle and iterations. Key milestones include:

• July 2025: The U.S. House of Representatives first passes the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), laying the groundwork for comprehensive market structure legislation.
• Late 2025 to early 2026: Relevant Senate committees (Banking and Agriculture) release discussion drafts and solicit feedback. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott emphasizes that legislation aims to establish clear rules to ensure the next generation of financial innovation occurs in the U.S.
• January 2026: The legislative process hits a snag. The markup session for the Senate Banking Committee’s bill scheduled for January is canceled, mainly due to industry and political disagreements. Meanwhile, the Senate Agriculture Committee releases the Digital Commodity Intermediary Act (DCIA), focusing on regulation of digital commodity intermediaries.
• Late February to early March 2026: Despite controversy, JPMorgan analysts continue to predict increased likelihood of approval by mid-year, based on ongoing negotiations.

Currently, the main obstacles in legislation focus on two core issues: first, the legality of stablecoin yields—directly touching on conflicts between traditional banks and the crypto industry; second, moral hazard restrictions related to government officials and their families participating in crypto activities.

Eight Catalysts Dissected: How the Bill Could Reshape Market Infrastructure

JPMorgan analysts detail eight structural changes that could be triggered if the bill passes, forming the core basis of their “positive catalyst” assessment.

These eight catalysts essentially constitute a systemic reset of market infrastructure, transforming the previously enforcement-interpretation-based ambiguity into clear, compliant pathways for institutions.

Market Voices: Optimism and Caution Clash

Public opinion around the bill is multi-layered:

Facts

• JPMorgan analysts release a report predicting the bill may be approved by mid-year.
• The White House has held multiple closed-door meetings with crypto industry representatives and banking groups to seek compromise solutions.
• The Senate Agriculture Committee has published and advanced legislative text for the Digital Commodity Intermediary Act.

Views

• Optimists: Represented by JPMorgan analysts and industry experts like 360Trader, believing passage will unlock “dormant capital,” attract trillions of dollars in institutional funds, and possibly mark a new bull market watershed.
• Cautious: Focus on core disagreements in the legislative process, such as stablecoin yield issues causing conflicts between banks and crypto firms. Banks worry that allowing stablecoin yields will drain traditional deposits and threaten financial stability.

Speculations

• If the bill passes, short-term markets may reprice assets covered by the “grandfather clauses.”
• Long-term, it could accelerate integration of traditional finance infrastructure with DeFi protocols, but may also render yieldless pure algorithmic stablecoins less competitive in the U.S.

Behind the Catalyst Narrative: Logic vs. Reality

When evaluating the “bill as a bull market catalyst” narrative, a structured cautious approach is necessary.

On one hand, the logical chain holds: regulatory clarity is indeed a key barrier for large institutions like pension funds and endowments. Replacing “enforcement-style regulation” with codified law will give compliance departments clear guidance, making onboarding of custodians like BNY Mellon more straightforward.

On the other hand, the narrative risks oversimplification. First, legislative progress is non-linear. The Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees are advancing different bills (comprehensive vs. focused on CFTC), and future coordination with the House version remains uncertain. Second, even if passed, rulemaking will take up to 18 months, meaning “approval” is just the beginning, not the end.

If the Bill Passes, Who Benefits? Who Faces Pressure?

The bill’s passage will fundamentally reshape the U.S. crypto industry landscape:

• Exchanges: Increased compliance costs and barriers will favor leading compliant exchanges. The bill also offers a two-year registration exemption for foreign digital asset exchanges, provided their home country has comparable regulation.
• Projects: Funding pathways become clearer (via the $75 million exemption), but projects need to plan earlier for decentralization to transition from securities to commodities.
• Institutional Services: Banks will gain clear guidance on custody and operations. JPMorgan itself may launch stablecoins or tokenized deposit products tied to its payment services, competing with offshore products like USDe.
• Investor Protections: As outlined in the Senate Banking Committee’s “Myth vs. Fact” document, the bill aims to prevent incidents like FTX through disclosures and insider trading prevention, bringing digital assets into modern financial regulation.

Three Potential Scenarios for 2026

Based on current information, three scenarios can be projected:

Scenario 1: Baseline — Approval as Scheduled Mid-Year

• Path: White House closed-door meetings lead to a compromise on stablecoin yield issues (e.g., yield caps or limited types). Both chambers coordinate and approve a unified text before summer.
• Impact: Market expectations are met, compliant assets (especially those listed under “grandfather clauses”) are boosted. From Q3, institutional funds begin tentative entry, supporting a moderate market rise.

Scenario 2: Delay — Postpone to After the Election

• Path: Disagreements over stablecoin yields or moral hazard clauses stall legislation in the Senate, or the negotiated version faces resistance in both chambers.
• Impact: Short-term market sentiment dips, some speculative capital exits. However, legislative expectations remain a long-term narrative, with limited downside correction, and funds may shift to other narratives (e.g., rate cut expectations).

Scenario 3: Black Swan — Substantial Amendments or Suspension

• Path: Extreme political battles or new industry scandals lead to major revisions or shelving of the bill.
• Impact: U.S. crypto industry reverts to “enforcement-style regulation” ambiguity, causing talent and capital to rapidly exit. Markets suffer significant negative shocks, and the perceived compliance advantage is invalidated.

Conclusion: Prepare for Structural Changes Before Rules Are Clear

JPMorgan’s forecast provides a clear coordinate: mid-2026 will be a key test of whether U.S. crypto regulation truly shifts toward a more structured paradigm. Regardless of the outcome, the discussion around the CLARITY Act marks a transition from “marginal resistance” to “mainstream contest.” For market participants, rather than betting on a single scenario, it’s prudent to revisit their risk exposure based on the details of the bill, because in a cycle where regulation is the biggest variable, understanding the rules is more important than predicting prices.