Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights: Narrative-driven, Price Increase Catalysts Still Main Market Trends

Cailian Press, March 2 — Last Friday, the A-shares closed February. At the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index slightly declined 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.04%. The Shanghai Composite gained 1.09% in February, marking three consecutive positive months. The Shenzhen Component increased by 2.04%, while the ChiNext Index declined 1.08%. After the Spring Festival, the combined trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days.

In terms of sectors, coal, electricity, non-ferrous metals, gas, steel, and oil sectors surged strongly, while computing power, rare earths, and gold concepts were active. Paper and semiconductor sectors declined.

In today’s brokerage morning meeting, CITIC Securities stated that narrative-driven and price-increase catalysts remain the main drivers of the market; CITIC Construction Investment believes that the outbreak of US-Iran conflict is pushing precious metals and aluminum upward; China International Capital Corporation (CICC) predicts that the peak season for lithium battery production will drive a spring rally with high growth rates.

CITIC Securities: Narrative-driven and price-increase catalysts remain the main drivers of the market

Some high-growth industries are classified as sentiment-driven, such as precious metals, charging and power equipment, and bulk chemicals; industries with moderate gains, like intelligent driving, media and gaming, humanoid robots, and white wine, are also sentiment-driven; industries with very high gains are classified as fundamentally driven, such as rare earths and small metals, wind power, and chip design; additionally, some industries with moderate gains but high discussion volume, like North American AI computing power and cement building materials, are considered fundamentally driven.

From a market perspective, whether driven by event catalysts or signals from volume and price, the clues from price increases and AI narratives remain within a safe zone. The outbreak of Iran’s geopolitical risks and the rising expectations for anti-inflation policies around the Two Sessions may further strengthen the price increase signals.

In terms of allocation, the combination of AI exposure and supply constraints equals an expectation of rising prices. It is expected that the market driven by price increases will continue through March.

CITIC Construction Investment: US-Iran conflict drives precious metals and aluminum upward

After the Spring Festival holiday, aside from gold and tin, which rose significantly due to geopolitical factors, domestic non-ferrous metals mostly fluctuated as they awaited further downstream consumption signals. On one hand, downstream sectors have gradually resumed after the Lantern Festival, and inventory turning points are becoming clearer. On the other hand, the outbreak of US-Iran conflict is expected to boost safe-haven demand, pushing precious metals prices higher. Meanwhile, about 7 million tons of electrolytic aluminum from six Middle Eastern countries, especially Iran’s nearly 800,000 tons, face dual threats of raw material input and finished product output. Since global aluminum inventories are not resilient to shocks, aluminum prices are trending upward.

CICC: Lithium battery production peak season arrives, high-growth recovery drives spring market

Driven by improved supply and demand, the industry chain is gradually entering a moderate inflation trend by Q4 2025: upstream materials are leading the price reversal, with some segments like 6F, separators, foils, and iron-lithium cathodes establishing fundamental turning points; after price stabilization, the battery segment will also enter a recovery phase.