Entered precisely 71 minutes ago! Six mysterious accounts bet on the airstrike against Iran and made a crazy profit of 1.2 million

All these accounts were registered in February, most of them made their first deposit within 24 hours before the attack, and have no other transaction records. Their behavior closely matches insider trading characteristics. Article by: Dong Jing Source: Wall Street Insights

The news of the U.S. launching a military strike on Iran has shaken global markets, but before the explosions, some had quietly positioned themselves. According to blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps, six suspected insider accounts on the Polymarket platform placed concentrated bets on “Yes” just hours before the U.S. airstrike on Iran, earning approximately $1.2 million in total profit. These accounts were all registered in February, most completed their first deposit within 24 hours before the attack, and aside from the above bets, had no other transaction history. This incident has sparked strong concern over regulatory gaps in prediction markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a warning last week about insider trading in prediction markets, increasing regulatory pressure.

According to Wall Street Insights, on February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale joint military attack on Iran. As reported by CCTV News, Trump posted a video on the “Real Social” platform confirming that U.S. forces had launched a “major combat operation” against Iran, and warned Tehran, “Once the operation is over, we will take over your government.” After the news was made public, Bitcoin’s price declined, while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose due to escalating regional conflict expectations. Trading volume for this contract market approached $90 million on February 28, and since December last year, the total trading volume of contracts related to the U.S. strike on Iran has exceeded $529 million, indicating high market attention to this geopolitical event.

Six accounts precisely bet, earning $1.2 million profit

According to an analysis report posted by Bubblemaps on social platform X, six Polymarket accounts heavily bought “Yes” shares in the contract “Will the U.S. strike Iran before February 28, 2026,” and all profits were realized after the market settled at $1.00, totaling about $1.2 million. One account bought over 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, ultimately earning nearly $560,000; another bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents each, also achieving six-figure gains. Bubblemaps’ visual map shows clear links among the six wallets, with highly similar fund sources. All these accounts were created in February, most completed their first deposit within 24 hours before the attack, and had no other trading activity besides these bets. This pattern strongly aligns with typical insider trading behavior.

Additionally, MikeLevin posted on X that among these six accounts, a Polymarket account named “Magamyman” made $515,000 in a single day, with its first trade occurring 71 minutes before the news was publicly disclosed. At that time, the market’s probability of the U.S. striking Iran was only 17%. The account entered with about $87,000 and overnight made over $500,000. Notably, MikeLevin also pointed out that Donald Trump Jr., a current member of Polymarket’s advisory board, and his company invested tens of millions of dollars in the platform last year. The U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC had previously investigated Polymarket, but those investigations were dropped after Trump took office. He calls for explanations from relevant parties and urges transparency and regulatory follow-up.

Regulatory pressure intensifies as insider trading in prediction markets surfaces

At this time, U.S. regulators are increasing scrutiny of insider trading in prediction markets. Competitor platform Kalshi announced this week that it has suspended and penalized two users suspected of insider trading. One is a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s show “Beast Games,” accused of using non-public information about the show’s results to trade, banned for two years and fined over $20,000; another involved a political candidate betting on their own election contract. Kalshi states it has investigated about 200 cases, with over ten still under active investigation. The CFTC issued a warning that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law, with Chairman Mike Selig calling the exchange the “first line of defense.”

Meanwhile, insider trading issues on Polymarket are not new. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT announced last week that he would release a report on a certain crypto platform, sparking market speculation and leading to a Polymarket contract betting on “which company will be named.” According to Lookonchain, 12 wallets had heavily bet on Axiom before the investigation results were announced, with an employee allegedly using non-public information to trade.