U.S.-Israel Raid on Iran Sparks Market: Oil Prices Surge 13% at Opening, Gold Jumps 2%, Dow Futures Drop 500 Points

According to Cailian Press, as the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran last weekend, causing oil prices to soar, geopolitical risks have become another major concern for investors. Data shows that international oil prices opened sharply higher on Monday, with Brent crude rising by about 13% at one point, breaking through $82 per barrel, and WTI crude increasing by approximately 12% to $75 per barrel.

The joint U.S.-Israel airstrike that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has become one of the most pivotal events in the Islamic Republic of Iran since 1979. Although U.S. President Trump stated in an interview that the military action is “ahead of schedule,” markets remain worried about a prolonged conflict.

This large-scale military operation was launched late Saturday night after Iran refused U.S. demands to halt its nuclear program. Iranian officials have vowed strong retaliation, heightening fears of the conflict spreading throughout the Middle East.

As the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, Iran’s situation has caused intense volatility in the crude oil market. In the vacuum of leadership, who will ultimately take control remains uncertain.

The future of the oil market largely depends on whether the conflict affects the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transportation routes. If disruptions persist, it could impact global energy markets and reignite inflation pressures.

Henri Patricot, a UBS analyst leading a team of analysts, pointed out in a report to clients on Sunday: “We believe that the key factors determining oil prices in the coming days are the speed of resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the intensity of Iran’s retaliation.”

According to Rystad Energy, a consulting firm, shipping companies have taken precautions, and oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a halt.

Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Kpler, an energy consulting firm, said: “Oil tankers are starting to linger near the Strait of Hormuz, but currently, almost no ships are passing through—obviously, the tankers are frightened.” According to Kpler data, in 2025, over 14 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, accounting for about one-third of global seaborne crude oil exports. The company states that approximately three-quarters of these exports go to China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

UBS analysts warn that the market may be facing a significant supply disruption, which could push Brent spot prices above $120 per barrel.

Safe-haven sentiment boosts gold, U.S. stock futures plunge

As risk aversion intensifies, gold prices also surged, with gold futures jumping 2%. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures plunged by 543 points overnight; S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both declined by about 1%.

“Under the cloud of uncertainty, all global risk assets are under pressure,” said Adam Hetts, Global Head of Multi-Asset at Janus Henderson. “If turmoil continues, rising oil prices could trigger a global inflation panic.”

The geopolitical crisis comes at a time when U.S. stocks are already fragile. Last Friday, the S&P 500 closed lower amid tech stock turbulence, with AI and software sectors facing renewed selling pressure. Markets are beginning to question: Will the rapid adoption of AI disrupt traditional software companies? Will the wave of automation erode corporate profit models and trigger layoffs?

Citi’s equity strategy team noted in a client report: “Short-term shocks are highly likely, but long-term frictions in the stock market cannot be ruled out. The current volatility must be added to the growing list of concerns—while the AI investment boom seems to be in full swing, its promised productivity gains are quickly facing the reality of business model disruptions.”

Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha said: “Although the conflict is unlikely to severely alter the outlook for the U.S. economy, the tail risks of ongoing confrontation far exceed levels in 2024 or 2025.” He warned investors that it’s not advisable to rush into buying the dip this week, “since markets are accustomed to the rapid cooling of conflicts in the past.”