CICC: Optimistic about the Spring Offensive of the Lithium Battery Sector Under the Triple Catalytic Resonance

CICC Research Report: Optimistic About the Spring Surge in the Lithium Battery Sector Driven by Triple Catalytic Resonance

We are optimistic about the lithium battery sector’s spring offensive under the triple catalytic resonance: 1) demand recovery leading to main chain beta repair; 2) continuous progress in solid-state battery industrialization, with leading battery manufacturers gradually initiating tenders for solid-state battery equipment and traditional lithium equipment; 3) the industry chain entering mild inflation, with fundamentals’ elasticity accelerating release.

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CICC: Peak Production Season for Lithium Batteries Approaching, Steep Recovery Driving Spring Market

CICC Research

We are optimistic about the lithium battery sector’s spring offensive under the triple catalytic resonance: 1) demand recovery leading to main chain beta repair; 2) continuous progress in solid-state battery industrialization, with leading battery manufacturers gradually initiating tenders for solid-state battery equipment and traditional lithium equipment; 3) the industry chain entering mild inflation, with fundamentals’ elasticity accelerating release.

Summary

Post-holiday demand recovery combined with export rush orders may increase the industry’s demand recovery slope. Following the holiday, the release of new vehicle models and intensified trade-in policies are expected to drive a recovery in domestic new energy vehicle demand; additionally, the reduction in export tax rebates and adjustments to U.S. tariffs are likely to boost lithium battery export rush orders, further accelerating the recovery slope. Based on Xinluo Information and industry chain surveys, we expect battery production in March to increase by 20-30% month-on-month and 40-100% year-on-year, showing a high-slope recovery trend.

The trend of solid-state batteries is upward and may resonate with the main chain. On one hand, solid-state batteries are highly compatible with space application scenarios, and we believe space solid-state batteries could open new application scenarios, further enhancing valuation and market space for solid-state batteries. On the other hand, leading battery manufacturers are gradually initiating tenders for solid-state pilot lines, and testing of solid-state batteries in vehicles is accelerating. We are optimistic about the clear pace of solid-state battery industrialization, with core equipment including dry electrode, isostatic pressing, and laser equipment; key materials such as sulfides, lithium metal anodes, and current collectors are expected to benefit first.

Gradual inflation across the entire industry chain is expected to accelerate the release of fundamental elasticity. We believe that driven by improved supply and demand, a mild inflation trend will gradually emerge in Q4 2025: upstream materials will lead price reversals, with some segments like 6F, separators, foils, and iron-lithium cathodes establishing fundamental turning points; after price stabilization, the battery segment will also enter a repair phase.

Risks

Global new energy vehicle sales falling short of expectations; global energy storage installation demand falling short; market price competition intensifying profit decline; delays in the industrialization of new technologies.

(Source: People’s Financial News)