Impact of US-Israel-Iran Conflict on the Global Economy (Adverse Industries)

1. Aviation and Tourism
Fuel costs account for 30%-40% of airline expenses, and rising oil prices directly squeeze profits.
Closure of Middle Eastern airspace/routes and a sharp decline in international travel demand lead to reduced flights and a significant drop in passenger traffic.
Tourism-related industries such as hotels, restaurants, and duty-free shops will also suffer due to decreased travel willingness.

2. Downstream Chemicals (excluding coal chemicals) and High-Energy-Consumption Manufacturing
Crude oil is a core raw material for the chemical industry. Rising oil prices increase upstream costs for plastics, rubber, and other materials, but downstream product prices lag, creating a "high cost, low selling price" profit squeeze.
Energy costs in high-energy-consuming industries like steel, electrolytic aluminum, and cement account for 30%-50%. Rising oil and electricity prices directly lead to significant profit declines.

3. Automotive and Consumer Electronics
Israel is a major global chip manufacturing base. If production capacity is damaged, it will exacerbate the global automotive chip shortage, leading to reduced vehicle production.
Rising crude oil prices increase the costs of plastics, rubber, and other components, while global inflation suppresses demand for automobiles, home appliances, and other discretionary goods.

4. Export Manufacturing and Foreign Trade
Blocked routes in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf increase container shipping costs and extend delivery times, weakening China's manufacturing price competitiveness.
Declining demand from the Middle East and Europe causes a cliff-like drop in export orders for electromechanical, textile, and building materials industries.

5. Discretionary Consumption and Retail
High oil prices and global inflation reduce residents' disposable income, leading to decreased demand for non-essential goods such as cars, home appliances, and luxury items.
Rising oil prices push up logistics and distribution costs, further compressing retail profits.

6. High-Valuation Growth Stocks and Technology Sector
Market panic causes funds to withdraw from high-valuation sectors like semiconductors, AI, and innovation, shifting toward defensive assets such as gold and oil & gas.
Geopolitical conflicts push up global inflation. The Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts slows, weakening the valuation logic of high-growth stocks.

7. Agriculture and Food Processing
Iran is a major global exporter of urea, and Israel is a key supplier of potash and smart irrigation equipment. Supply disruptions will increase planting costs.
Blocked Red Sea shipping routes lead to a 8%-12% rise in transportation costs for grains and agricultural products, intensifying global food security pressures.