Index range fluctuation rotation cycle, waiting for a divergence adjustment entry opportunity! (2026.03.01)

Data Review: [Taogu Ba]
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index +0.39%, the ChiNext Index -1.04%, the STAR Market 50 Index +0.15%, total market turnover 24.88 billion yuan, 3,271 stocks rose, 2,068 stocks fell, market-wide trading volume decreased by 504 million compared to yesterday.

Overall Market Sentiment: Volatile Rotation
Number of limit-up stocks: 75 (yesterday: 61)
Number of 20-cent limit-up stocks: 6 (yesterday: 8)
Number of consecutive limit-up stocks: 10 (yesterday: 9)
Number of limit-down stocks: 0 (yesterday: 3)
Today’s break rate: 16.6% (yesterday: 27.4%)
Today’s first-limit success rate: 9.6% (yesterday: 8.9%)

Today’s Major Stocks with Limit-ups
Ruixin Technology -19, Asset Acquisition
Before 9:45 AM, whether major stocks with limit-ups can quickly recover is an auxiliary signal for sector recovery.

Today’s High-Volume Surprising Stocks in Opening Auction
Magmet

Global Continuous Limit-Up Stocks Summary:
7-limit: Yunnan Energy Holdings (power, equity in computing power)
4-limit: Jinjingda (chemical)
3-limit: Zhangyuan Tungsten (metal tungsten), Hongxing Shares (consumer), Gannan Energy (electricity)
2-limit: Changyuan Donggu (gas turbines), Shama Power (AI power), Huayin Power (AI power), Taijia Shares (Huawei computing power), Beijing Keli (AI power)

I. Sentiment Cycle and Key Node Analysis:
Limit-up stocks are increasing within the median range, continuous limit-up stocks are stable in the low to mid-range, break rates are decreasing, limit-down stocks are stable in the low range, total market turnover ratio of limit-ups/market total is around 0.43, with no significant change compared to yesterday. Recently, multiple sector effects have appeared consecutively, indicating that profit-making effects are not concentrated. Currently, it is a chaotic cycle of rotation and trial-and-error.

Sentiment Temperature: Moderate, leaning towards positive (60)

Tomorrow’s Short-Term Market Sentiment Anchors:
Yunnan Energy Holdings, Jiang Tung Equipment
Before 9:45 AM, the positive/negative feedback and extreme sentiment anchors of these stocks will signal the market’s overall bullish or bearish sentiment.

Recent Strong Sectors, Top Sector of the Day, and Notable Stocks:

II. Capital Flow Analysis:

Loss Effect -
No obvious loss effect across sectors, mainly in PCB, CPO, and other tech directions, representing trend-based divergence adjustments.
Position & Structure: No clear loss effect, with different trend structures represented by international composite materials, Yangming Circuits, etc.

Profit Effect -
Distributed in sectors like computing power, small metals, rare earths, electricity, and chemicals, indicating multi-sector rotation.
Position & Structure: Different trend structures, represented by Jiang Tung Equipment, Fenghuo Communications, etc.

Capital Flow Summary:
Funds continue to diversify across sectors, recently locking in positions in chemicals, small metals, rare earths, computing power, and AI electricity sectors, each showing upward trend structures. Overall, market funds still favor trend-based行情.

III. Sector Analysis:
Sectors or concepts with continued healthy trend structures today include: CPO/AIDC/OCS/PCB/Optical Communication/Gas Turbines/Metal Tungsten/Small Metals/Rare Earths/Electronic Fabrics/Transformers/Liquid Cooling Servers/Chemicals/Hard Materials.
These sectors or concepts represent recent profit-making effects and high recent fund involvement, suitable as short-term stock selection directions.

Chemicals -
In the second phase of the trend cycle.
First phase led by Hongbaoli, Runtu Shares, Baichuan Shares, alternating leadership.
Second phase led by Yuntianhua, Jinjingda, following suit.

Friday Chemical Market Path:
Opening sentiment shows Cangxing Shares opening lower and oscillating; Jinjingda quickly hits the limit-up; Jinpu Titanium quickly rebounds and hits the limit-up; Yuntianhua, Chuanfa Longmang, Wanhua Chemical oscillate upward with positive feedback. Later, funds lacked collective force; stocks like Jinjingda and Jinpu Titanium broke the limit, leading to sector weakness during the session.

This indicates no strong correlation among chemical stocks, mainly driven by individual fund control rhythms. The strong and weak days alternate, with a slow oscillating upward trend overall.

Metals (Small Metals, Rare Earths) -
In the first phase of the trend cycle.
Led by Jiang Tung Equipment and Zhangyuan Tungsten.

Friday Metal Market Path:
Opening with consecutive limit-ups: Zhangyuan Tungsten high open and rapid limit-up; Jiang Tung Equipment and others strengthen with limit-ups; related rare earth sectors (Baogang, Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources) oscillate and strengthen.

This wave of metal sector rally is mainly led by tungsten branch, with other small metals like cobalt, titanium, nickel following with limit-ups. Geopolitical tensions and export controls on rare earths also contribute. Currently, tungsten is in an accelerating phase, but phase correction or adjustment may occur soon.

The entire metal sector performed better than expected Friday, with no continuous correction, indicating funds have already shifted upward in advance. Maintaining a cautious outlook, small metals may accelerate and adjust, while low-positioned rare earths remain bullish.

Artificial Intelligence (Computing Power, Chips) -
In the 13th phase of the trend cycle.
First led by Haili Shares and Chunzhong Technology, followed by Zhangjiang Hi-Tech.
Subsequent phases involve various leaders like Haili, Dongxin, Chunzhong, Huawei Ascend, Cambrian, Hygon, and others, with alternating leadership and no clear core leader in some phases.

Huawei’s Ascend core trend: Huasheng Tiancheng, Huafeng Technology, Taijia Shares, Shenling Environment, Yi Hua Shares, all oscillating along trend lines.

Transformers core trend: Igor, Jinpan Technology, Wangbian Electric, Sifang Shares, Siyuan Electric, China Western Electric, TBEA, with slow oscillating upward structures.

Gas Turbines core trend: Lian De Shares, Wanze Shares, Yingliu Shares, Boyingte Welding, Weichai Power, Dongfang Electric, also oscillating upward.

Second-generation Electronics core: Guoji Furu, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, with strong upward trend structures.
Q-Communications core: Filihua, Ping An Electric, Zhongcai Technology, Dongcai Technology, with temporary upward correction.
Copper Foil core: Copper Crown, Longyang Electronics, Fude Technology, with uncertain short-term expectations.
PCB Drilling Core: Dingtai High-tech, Zhongwu High-tech, Dazhu CNC, with uncertain short-term expectations.
PCB Board Manufacturers: Hudian Shares, Shennan Circuit, Shenghong Technology, Shengyi Technology, trending upward along trend lines.
Optical Fiber: Longfibre, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Tongding Interconnection, Hangdian Shares, currently the best trend in computing branches, oscillating upward along trend lines.
OCS: Tengjing Technology, Dekeli, Guangku Technology, in deep correction phase, short-term expectations uncertain.
CPO/Optical Communication: Tianfu Communications, Juguang Technology, Zhishang Technology, Jepu, Mingyang Circuit, oscillating upward along trend lines.
Memory Chips: GigaDevice, Jiang Bolong, Shannong Chip, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, in deep correction, expectations uncertain short-term.
Domestic Semiconductor Front-End: Northern Huachuang, Jiangfeng Electronics, Fuchuang Precision, Dinglong, ChipSource, GreenDa, JingCe Electronics, with uncertain short-term expectations.
Domestic Semiconductor Back-End: Changchuan Technology, Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, Jingzhida, Jinhai Tong, Si Dian, Helin Micro, Polymeric Materials, also uncertain short-term.

Friday Tech Sector Path:
In bidding, Taijia Shares hit a one-word limit; Wangsu Technology surged on high volume; after opening, Huasheng Tiancheng and Huafeng Technology strengthened; Tuo Wei Information and Huawei Ascend also surged; Hanggang Shares hit the limit; Wangsu, Capital Online, Shunwang Technology gained strength.

Recently strong sectors like optical fiber, optical communication, and PCB faced external shocks and opened lower, but trend cores like Tongding Interconnection, Hangdian, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong, Tianfu Communications oscillated upward, showing low opening and high recovery, with amplitude expansion.

Despite relative strength in domestic computing power on Friday, the initial surge was led by concepts like Jinjingda and Xinjuyuan, related to AI applications, indicating that the strong part is AI application-related computing power, which is a low-positioned rotation. Huawei Ascend’s upward trend at the start indicates a trend-based structure, while AI application computing power is a rotation at low levels. Both are strong but should be viewed separately.

Furthermore, Huawei Ascend quickly surged and hit the limit-up, pulling down Wantuo Information, reflecting that Huawei Ascend’s rise is trend-driven rather than emotion-driven. The mid-day break and subsequent break of Huasheng Tiancheng also suggest internal rotation or signals from low-positioned stocks.

Finally, this wave of AI electricity, with Yunnan Energy Holdings as a combined concept of power and computing power, broke through the dynamic line early in the session, attracting funds to chase small caps for follow-up gains or arbitrage. These limit-ups are more about localized sentiment play. The core of this wave remains gas turbines and transformers, with trend cores like Dongfang Electric, Wanze Shares, Sifang Shares, Jingquan Hua, Igor, all showing upward trends. They have not experienced continuous emotional surges, indicating that the adjustment amplitude in their trend structures won’t be large, making them relatively more stable among recent tech sectors.

In summary, various branches of the tech sector are in trend-based institutional lock-in, maintaining the previously stated view that no trend line breaks or unstable chips indicate a continued upward trend. Sector rotation and oscillation are normal, so participation should follow rhythm.

IV. Index and Market Outlook:

As shown, Friday’s major indices oscillated with small positive candles, mainly in a narrow range, suggesting a likely upcoming turning point after consolidation. Previously, I mentioned that the dense chip accumulation zone and around 30 trillion volume do not support a breakout expectation. If Friday’s volume continues to shrink, downside adjustment expectations increase, but this does not imply systemic risk. Given recent geopolitical instability and poor US stock performance, the fact that indices can still maintain oscillation indicates high control by the market. As long as there are no extreme negative feedback conditions, divergence in sentiment and indices will present trial-and-error opportunities.

Pre-market Outlook for Tomorrow:
Weekend market focus is on geopolitical news, which may trigger short-term risk aversion. Defensive sectors like small metals, rare earths, chemicals, or oil & gas, military industry may continue to strengthen, but avoid chasing high. A decline driven by negative news could lead to sentiment hedging and sector pullbacks.

Secondly, tech sectors are expected to continue alternating rotation. The relatively strong Huawei Ascend and domestic computing power may see correction; gas turbines and transformers are relatively stable; domestic chips and semiconductors are at low levels. The best approach is to wait for index divergence and correction before seeking entry points.

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