Zhang Yaoxi: Tariffs and ongoing geopolitical risks remain, and the outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish.

Zhang Yaoxi: Continued geopolitical risks keep tariffs in focus; gold price outlook remains bullish
On the previous trading day, Wednesday (February 25): International gold prices initially rose then retraced, closing with a bullish line, but failed to hold steady and recover Tuesday’s decline, indicating short-term volatility and a potential downward correction. However, there are numerous support levels from moving averages below, and the overall trend is gradually moving higher with oscillations. Therefore, if a correction occurs and prices dip, approaching support levels at various moving averages, it remains a primarily bullish outlook.
In terms of specific movement, gold opened in Asia at $5143.28 per ounce, briefly hit a daily low of $5120.96, then rebounded and continued to fluctuate. After the U.S. session, it reached a daily high of $5217.39, but by the close, it dropped sharply again, ending at $5165.06. The daily range was $96.43, closing up $21.78, a gain of 0.42%.
The rally was supported by technical buying and tensions ahead of Iran’s next nuclear negotiations, as well as Iran’s ongoing nuclear ambitions, which supported gold and silver prices. However, the prospect of the U.S. maintaining short-term interest rates unchanged could pose resistance to gold. Additionally, as risk appetite improves and stock markets rise, the demand for safe-haven assets diminishes. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, limiting bullish momentum in gold, leading to a retreat and closing lower.

Looking ahead to Thursday (February 26): International gold opened stronger, supported by buying driven by the 5-day moving average, and the lack of clarity in U.S. trade policies. U.S. Trade Representative Grier indicated that the U.S. will announce tariffs at 15%, and tariffs will continue to be implemented, providing support for gold prices.
Therefore, amid inflationary pressures from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions ahead of Iran’s nuclear talks, the gold outlook remains predominantly bullish.
Overall, given policymakers’ concerns about persistently high U.S. inflation, markets generally expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady at least until June. The federal funds futures market projects only about a 53 basis point rate cut this year, roughly two 25-basis point cuts, with the first possibly in July or September. This indicates that a rate cut cycle is still underway, with timing uncertain, supporting a bullish phase for gold.
Additionally, PDR Gold ETF holdings as of February 25 increased to 1,097.62 tons, up 3.43 tons from the previous trading day, reaching a new high since February 2021. This accumulation signals strong institutional confidence in gold’s long-term value.

Thus, this year’s gold market is in a window where tariffs, inflation, and Iran’s nuclear crisis intersect. In the short term, there may be consolidation in spring, but any declines or adjustments are likely to be quickly offset by uncertainties. Amid ongoing global uncertainties, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and trust anchor remains prominent. The overall trend for the year is bullish, and over the next year, with the Federal Reserve’s easing policies, a relatively weak dollar, and unresolved geopolitical risks, gold could challenge the $6,000 level.
On a technical monthly basis, after continuing the bearish reversal in January and then plunging in February, gold found support at the upward trendline that had been broken earlier in the year. It then rebounded and maintained within a new bullish phase, staying above the 5-month moving average, indicating that the bearish correction in January has been exhausted. The new bullish outlook remains valid, and the trend is expected to strengthen and rise again.
On the daily chart, bullish momentum has weakened today, but prices remain above the 5-day moving average, with multiple support levels below. The technical indicators also lean toward bullish signals, suggesting a higher probability of continued strength. Therefore, trading should focus on buying dips, with support at various moving averages, maintaining a bullish bias.

Gold: Support levels around $5130 or $5080; resistance levels near $5230 or $5300.
Silver: Support levels around $87.30 or $85.00; resistance levels near $91.40 or $92.70.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold prices roughly causes a $0.25 change in Gold TD (theoretical).
US futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × futures days to expiry / 365)
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The above opinions and analyses are solely the author’s personal views, for reference only, not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
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