Eight Questions and Answers: Why are the US and Israel jointly attacking Iran? Where is the Middle East situation headed?

On February 28th, local time, Israel and the United States launched attacks on multiple targets, including the Iranian presidential office. Subsequently, Iran launched missile strikes on Tel Aviv and other locations in Israel. Several U.S. military bases in the Middle East were also targeted by Iran.

This is the smoke caused by explosions in Tehran, Iran, photographed on February 28th. Source: Xinhua News Agency

Israel stated that the timing of this operation was decided weeks ago, with the goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime. U.S. President Trump outlined three objectives: eliminate the Iranian Navy, destroy Iran’s missile industry, and ensure Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons.

This is the smoke in Tel Aviv, Israel, photographed on February 28th. Source: Xinhua News Agency

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement announcing a retaliatory operation codenamed “True Commitment-4” against the U.S. and Israel. Iranian officials said the retaliation would be “destructive.” The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that they would make the U.S. and Israel pay a “bitter price.”

Why did the U.S. and Israel launch a joint attack on Iran? What is the future of the Middle East situation? A reporter from People’s Daily interviewed Wang Zezhuang, professor at Beijing Language University’s Institute of Regional and National Studies and director of the Iran Research Center.

Q: Why did Israel launch an attack on Iran at this time, and how does this attack differ from previous ones?

A: Israel’s current action is a continuation of its long-term confrontation with Iran and also a continuation of the “12-Day War” last year. Israel’s overall goal remains unchanged: weaken Iran’s operational capabilities and eliminate threats from Iran. In Israel’s view, overthrowing the current Iranian regime is the best way to achieve these goals. Additionally, this operation is related to Israel’s intelligence assessments, domestic political pressures, and evaluations of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Israel does not want Iran to strengthen its military power. The biggest difference from last year’s military actions is that this time, Israel successfully involved the U.S., conducting a “joint operation” against Iran.

Q: What does Israel hope to achieve with this attack, and is it likely to succeed as Israel wishes?

A: Israel aims to achieve multiple objectives, including but not limited to overthrowing the Iranian regime, weakening Iran’s military and nuclear progress, rebuilding its deterrence credibility, demonstrating security control to its domestic society, and sending a firm signal to regional allies. Whether these goals are fully realized depends on the precision and continuity of the strikes and Iran’s subsequent responses. If the operation causes only limited damage, it will mainly serve as a deterrent display; if Israel hopes to change Iran’s strategic direction with a single strike, the feasibility is limited due to Iran’s dispersed and redundant strategic capabilities.

Q: Why did the U.S. cooperate with Israel in this attack on Iran?

A: The U.S. willingness to act alongside Israel is often based on alliance commitments, regional power balance, and domestic political considerations. U.S. strategic calculations typically include containing Iran’s regional influence, preventing nuclear breakthroughs, maintaining security commitments to Israel, and demonstrating a tough stance internationally. Domestic factors such as partisan struggles, midterm election trust votes, and pressures from cases like Epstein also influence decisions. The Trump administration, in particular, sought to shift domestic attention and pressure through foreign military achievements.

Q: What losses might Iran suffer in this attack, and what responses could it take?

A: Iran may suffer damage to military facilities, infrastructure, or personnel, especially targets related to missiles, drones, or nuclear facilities. Iran might respond with layered strategies, including limited missile or drone counterattacks, exerting pressure through regional proxies, and increasing diplomatic and public opinion mobilization. Iran will need to balance “restoring deterrence” with “avoiding full-scale war” in its response.

Q: How long might the U.S.-Israel joint attack on Iran last, and how will it affect U.S.-Iran negotiations?

A: The duration depends on risk tolerance and strategic goals; it is unlikely to be very long. If the main aim is deterrence rather than complete destruction, the operation will be short, characterized by “high intensity, short cycle.” Such military actions could negatively impact U.S.-Iran negotiations, causing a temporary freeze or deterioration of talks. However, in the long term, military pressure might become leverage in negotiations, prompting both sides to reassess dialogue options. If Iran’s strikes cause significant casualties among U.S. military bases, it could motivate the U.S. to pursue a more comprehensive resolution, with the risk of ground warfare increasing.

Q: How will this renewed conflict affect the Middle East situation? How might neighboring countries respond?

A: Renewed conflict will heighten regional uncertainty, potentially causing oil price fluctuations, capital outflows, and increased regional security concerns. Neighboring countries tend to be cautious but may strongly condemn the U.S. and Israel’s actions, especially as some Arab states have previously called for diplomatic solutions and restraint. Countries may also seek to bolster their defenses, such as strengthening air defenses and protecting energy infrastructure. While they are unlikely to openly involve themselves in the conflict, the situation’s evolution remains uncertain, with the risk of spillover into the Gulf and broader Middle East.

Q: Recently, the EU and Iran designated each other’s armed forces as terrorist organizations. How might the EU respond to the U.S.-Israel joint attack on Iran?

A: The EU previously designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, intensifying sanctions and public pressure. In response to this attack, the EU may follow the U.S., expanding sanctions and restricting financial transactions. However, direct military intervention is less likely, as EU member states generally rely on NATO for military actions and are cautious about large-scale Middle East military involvement. The EU’s focus will likely remain on diplomatic efforts and sanctions.

Q: Will this U.S.-Israel joint attack on Iran be a short-term military clash, or could it develop into a long-term conflict?

A: This conflict is more likely to be a limited military engagement rather than an immediate slide into a long-term full-scale war. However, misjudgments or escalation could risk broader conflict. Iran’s ability to maintain stability depends on internal political cohesion, economic resilience, diplomatic space, and control over conflict intensity. External military pressure may temporarily strengthen internal unity but long-term stability will require economic recovery, diplomatic adjustments, and regional security restructuring.