Global Highlights for Next Week: Middle East Conflict Developments, US Non-Farm Payroll Data, and Apple New Product Launch

As the fighting between the U.S., Israel, and Iran reignited on Saturday, missiles and drones flying across the Middle East are causing concern among global investors: except for some Middle Eastern countries that are working on Sunday, nearly all major stock and futures exchanges worldwide are closed.

Against this backdrop, niche crypto markets unexpectedly became a popular window for observing sentiment in commodities, traditional assets, and risk assets.

As of press time, Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $63,000 after the conflict began on Saturday but has since recovered all losses. Meanwhile, gold-linked perpetual swap contracts surged above $5,400 per ounce after the outbreak, with the latest quotes falling back to around $5,300. Silver perpetual swaps briefly hit $97 per ounce, with the latest at $95. Oil-linked contracts also rose nearly 5%. U.S. stock index perpetual contracts generally declined by 1%-2%.

(Silver perpetual contract hourly chart, Source: Hyperliquid)

It should be noted that these prices are only indicators for Monday’s open, as these platforms are quite niche (low liquidity). More importantly, the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, making it difficult to predict what changes may occur within the next day.

According to U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, this round of military action could “last several days,” which will likely have a sustained impact on global markets next week. As the Middle Eastern aviation hubs of the UAE and Qatar are directly affected by the conflict, the international passenger market is also in chaos.

Recently, Dubai confirmed that a terminal corridor at Dubai International Airport (DXB) was slightly damaged in an incident, with four staff members injured.

Beyond the uncontrollable geopolitical situation, a series of events next week could trigger volatility across various assets.

For U.S. stocks, which have been “weak at 7,000 points,” the U.S. employment data due next Friday will be especially important. Investors will watch whether the unexpectedly strong January data is just a flash in the pan. Overall, unless employment figures are particularly weak, it will be difficult to significantly alter the Fed’s rate cut expectations.

(U.S. January non-farm payrolls unexpectedly rise, Source: tradingeconomics)

LSEG data shows that the U.S. money market has only priced in the next rate cut by July.

The UK government, embroiled in the Epstein documents turmoil, will also release its spring fiscal statement next Tuesday. Market expectations are that Chancellor Rees-Mogg will announce an improvement in fiscal conditions and reduce government bond issuance.

As external conditions become increasingly complex, China will enter the “Two Sessions” next week. How China plans to start the 14th Five-Year Plan will be a focus for Chinese investors and global markets.

On the corporate earnings front, next week Broadcom, a TPU concept stock, will release its latest earnings, continuing the U.S. market’s enthusiasm for AI investments. Hot stocks in quantum computing and satellite internet will also report their latest results. In Chinese concept stocks, JD.com and Bilibili will disclose their latest earnings, and the recent “Chinese AI Bull Stock” MiniMax will also report its first post-listing earnings on Monday.

Finally, after two consecutive days of “market cap evaporating trillions,” NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will attend the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference on March 4. The Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona will also kick off on Monday. Apple, a leader in consumer electronics, will start releasing spring new products from Monday and hold a media event on Wednesday.

Important upcoming financial events (Beijing time):

Monday (March 2): Eurozone February Manufacturing PMI final, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Israel from March 2-3, Apple begins spring product launches, MWC opening

Tuesday (March 3): South Korea markets closed, Eurozone February CPI

Wednesday (March 4): The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing, China February PMI, China February official manufacturing PMI, U.S. February ADP employment data

Thursday (March 5): The Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress in Beijing, Fed releases Beige Book

Friday (March 6): U.S. February non-farm payrolls data

(Source: Cailian Press)