The macroeconomic bull run in crypto is still ahead: why the current market is just a warm-up

Investors are waiting for a wave of rapid cryptocurrency growth, but the macroeconomic situation suggests otherwise. The true bull run may not begin until the second quarter of 2026, when global central banks fully ease monetary policy and frozen assets start circulating again in risky assets.

US Real Estate Market: $37 Trillion in a Liquidity Trap

The American housing market is in deep freeze despite its enormous nominal asset value. The market is saturated with $37 trillion worth of real estate, but these assets are nearly locked up due to high interest rates.

Property owners are in a tough position: no one is eager to sell their home and take out a mortgage at a higher rate, no one is refinancing existing loans, and certainly no one wants to borrow against their property at double-digit interest rates. The result is a market turned into a trap, where huge paper wealth cannot be materialized or redirected into other assets.

This very frozen liquidity in the real estate sector was the driver of the previous cycle. In 2021, when the explosive crypto bull run began, households were selling real estate en masse, refinancing mortgages, or taking out loans against their homes. The proceeds then flooded into risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

De-dollarization: Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold Instead of Dollars

The global flow of money is undergoing fundamental changes. Gold is experiencing a rapid surge, leaving behind both the US stock market and cryptocurrencies. The main reason is the long-awaited de-dollarization of global reserves.

China, Russia, India, and even the US itself are increasing gold reserves, signaling a gradual move away from the dollar-denominated government bonds as a neutral reserve asset. Two critical events preceded this: decades of reckless US fiscal policy eroded trust in the currency, and the US freezing Russian reserves a few years ago finally shattered illusions about the safety of dollar assets.

Macro analysts like Doomberg and Luke Gromen have long pointed out this trend. From a game theory perspective, the logic of asset-owning countries is clear: if a superpower can arbitrarily freeze foreign reserves, why hold dollars? Gold is an asset free from political jurisdiction.

US Stock Market: A Self-Sustaining Mechanism Through Passive Investments

The US stock market is growing, but without any visible madness. Analyst Mike Green has long explained this phenomenon: the US market has become a self-sustaining engine, where millions of office workers automatically direct their pension funds into index funds like the S&P 500 every month, regardless of asset valuation or economic conditions.

This system creates a constant flow of buying demand, ensuring slow but steady growth. At the same time, the US market consolidates global capital thanks to its developed infrastructure, high liquidity, and ease of exit. Global giants—Amazon, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft—are rooted here, further strengthening the market’s magnetism.

This structure will remain dominant until cryptocurrencies grow to serve as an alternative global platform for capital formation.

Cryptocurrencies: Recovery After the Crash, But a Bull Run Is Still Ahead

After nearly complete destruction in 2022 (Luna’s collapse, FTX bankruptcy, Fed tightening), the crypto market has recovered. However, the current state is just a bounce, not the long-awaited bull run.

Crypto volumes have increased by 25% from their 2021 peak, but the sector’s total market cap is still below the value of a single Nvidia and only one-tenth of the gold market. The main difference from the previous cycle is obvious: there is no macroeconomic liquidity flow fueling growth.

Those same “Cardano dads,” who watched YouTube and clicked on Coinbase in 2021, didn’t just invest their savings—they monetized real estate. Some sold homes, others refinanced mortgages, and some borrowed against their properties. This wave of liquidity from the now-frozen real estate market created conditions for explosive crypto growth.

When the Real Bull Run Will Truly Begin: Q2 2026

All macroeconomic indicators point to one scenario: the real crypto bull run will start when the same happens with real estate and liquidity.

In the second quarter of 2026, the Fed is likely to cut rates to a comfortable level. The housing market will start to thaw. The accumulated liquidity will once again flow into risky assets. That’s when the crypto bull run will truly take on scale.

If this scenario unfolds, the next one and a half years (until Q3 2027) could bring a powerful, sustained rise in cryptocurrencies. By Q4 2027, the accumulated excitement might lead to overheating and the formation of a speculative bubble, which will eventually correct. Uncertainty around the 2028 US presidential elections could trigger a new wave of sell-offs and a bear cycle.

Therefore, it’s important to understand: the bull run has not yet begun because the conditions simply aren’t there. The current recovery should not be considered the final chapter of growth. The true story of cryptocurrencies is just beginning to be written in the second quarter of 2026.