Latest Reuters Survey: Majority of Economists Predict Federal Funds Rate Will Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Range in Early 2026

A comprehensive Reuters survey involving 100 economists reveals a significant shift in market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. The latest data shows that 58 economists anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate within the 3.50% to 3.75% corridor throughout the first quarter of 2026, marking a notable change from projections made just a few months earlier.

Market Sentiment Reverses on Rate Cuts

This represents a substantial pivot from December’s survey, when most economists predicted at least one rate cut during this period. The current consensus reflects a more cautious stance on the pace of monetary easing. Among the surveyed economists, 55 believe that any potential resumption of rate cuts will likely begin in June or later, rather than in the immediate months ahead. This suggests the Federal Reserve may maintain its current stance longer than previously anticipated.

What the Numbers Tell Us

The concentration of expectations around the 3.50%-3.75% range for the federal funds rate indicates a relatively stable policy outlook. This narrow band consensus suggests growing agreement among analysts that the central bank will prioritize price stability over aggressive rate reductions in the near term. The shift in timing expectations—moving potential cuts further into the second half of 2026—could reflect changing economic data or inflation concerns that have altered the traditional policy trajectory.

(Data sourced from Reuters survey via Golden Ten Data)