Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say

2026-02-28 17:05:59

WASHINGTON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.

The assessments, which were produced over the past two weeks, looked broadly at what could occur in Iran following a U.S. intervention and the extent to which a military operation could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic – now a pronounced objective for Washington.

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The IRGC is an elite military force whose purpose is to protect Shi’ite Muslim clerical rule in Iran.

The intelligence agency reports did not conclude any scenario with certainty, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

The Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

President Donald Trump has for weeks signaled the U.S. was interested in seeing regime change in Iran, but has not given in any detail Washington’s thinking on who could lead the country.

In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump described Tehran as a “terrorist regime” and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying the U.S. military strikes would set the stage for an uprising.

The U.S. and Israeli assault comes after weeks of deliberation inside the U.S. government about whether to strike Iran following the deadly protests that broke out there in December.

U.S. officials in recent weeks have tried to strike a nuclear deal with Tehran in an attempt to stave off intervention.

In a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told top congressional lawmakers known as the Gang of Eight that a U.S. operation would likely move forward, but that Trump could change his mind, particularly if nuclear negotiations were successful. Those talks in Geneva did not result in an agreement.

Rubio notified the Gang of Eight on Friday night that the operation to attack Iran was likely to commence in the following hours but said Trump could still change his mind, two sources familiar with the matter said.

Reporting by Erin Banco; Editing by Humeyra Pamuk and Daniel Wallis

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Erin Banco

Thomson Reuters

Erin Banco is a national security correspondent focusing on the intelligence community. She covers everything from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza to U.S. covert operations overseas. She previously worked at POLITICO as a national security reporter. Banco has a long history covering the Middle East region, from Cairo to Baghdad to Aleppo where she’s reported on the Arab Spring and its aftermath, including the civil war in Syria and the rise of ISIS. Her 2017 book, Pipe Dreams, focuses on the development of the oil and gas industry in the northern Kurdistan region of Iraq. Banco attended The University of Wisconsin-Madison, where she majored in Arabic and journalism. She earned a master’s in public administration from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs in 2014.

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