The United States has still taken action against Iran. Israel and the U.S. military launched an operation codenamed "Judas Shield," and multiple explosions occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Although the U.S. has issued ample warnings about this military action, it is expected that financial markets and commodity markets will experience intense price fluctuations. Today is Saturday, and the U.S. stock market has not opened yet. From the sharp decline in the crypto market, it’s clear that the impact of this military operation on the U.S. stock market is unavoidable. Having lived in peaceful times for so long, it often feels like war is far away from us, but who knows what will happen in a few decades?

Previously, many people viewed cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as safe-haven assets, but this attribute has been repeatedly disproven. During times of conflict, the price of cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, actually tends to be affected negatively, which is different from most people's traditional understanding. However, the current decline is actually manageable; although there are a few percentage points of drop, after a recent rebound, the price has not broken through the lowest point following the rise and fall. Now, we just need to wait for the U.S. stock market to officially open and see if the crypto market will follow with another wave of decline.

Based on current market analysis, the price trend still aligns with a phase of bottom-range oscillation. If the U.S.-Iran war fully erupts, the financial markets will be significantly impacted. In the worst-case scenario, if Bitcoin’s price does not break below key support levels, it can be roughly confirmed that $60,000 is the bottom for the first half of this year. As for future trends, we can only observe as we go. In a sense, war is also a black swan event. The rebound in the first half of the year was disrupted by this sudden event, so it’s important to have psychological expectations. #深度创作营