Settlement Layer Returns: Vitalik's Analysis of L1 Power Restructuring and Ecosystem Evolution under the New Ethereum Scaling Paradigm

On February 28, 2026, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin released a new roadmap outlining thoughts on network scaling. This seemingly routine technical update actually marks a paradigm shift in Ethereum’s ecosystem development strategy: after years of rollup-centric scaling practices, the fundamental principles of scaling are returning to L1 itself. The short-term Glamsterdam upgrade will leverage multi-dimensional Gas mechanisms and ePBS (execution layer–consensus layer proposer separation) to fully explore existing architecture potential; the long-term vision relies on ZK-EVM and exponential increases in Blob data capacity, ultimately achieving the goal of a “Gigabit Gas” L1. This shift is not just a technical adjustment but also involves a reallocation of power between L1 and L2, a reconstruction of ETH value capture logic, and how Ethereum can solidify its role as the “global settlement layer” in competition with high-performance chains like Solana. As of press time, according to Gate.io market data, ETH is priced at $1,850.55, with a 24-hour trading volume of $446.43 million. Over the past 30 days, it has fallen 35.00%, and market sentiment remains pessimistic. In this macro context, understanding the evolution of this underlying logic is crucial for grasping Ethereum’s mid- to long-term value.

Event Overview: Strategic Shift in Scaling Focus

Vitalik Buterin divides Ethereum’s scaling path into short-term and long-term phases. The short-term focus is on the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, which aims to increase L1 transaction throughput and validation efficiency without changing the existing architecture. Key measures include: introducing block-level access lists for parallel validation; securely extending the block validation window within each 12-second slot via ePBS; and major reforms to the Gas model—introducing multi-dimensional Gas that separates “state creation” costs from regular “execution and call data” costs.

The long-term vision is more ambitious, aiming to enable Ethereum L1 to achieve orders-of-magnitude performance improvements by deeply integrating zero-knowledge proof technology (ZK-EVM) and further unlocking Blob data layer potential, all while maintaining decentralization. The Strawmap roadmap released by the Ethereum Foundation quantifies this vision: by 2029, through approximately seven forks every six months, achieving a “Terabit Gas” L1 (around 10,000 TPS) and “Zettabit Gas” L2 (around 10 million TPS). These actions clearly indicate that Ethereum’s strategic focus is shifting from “outsourcing execution entirely to L2” towards “strengthening L1 itself as the ultimate anchor for ecosystem security and interoperability.”

From Rollup-Centric to L1-First Paradigm

To understand the significance of this shift, it’s necessary to review Ethereum’s recent scaling philosophy evolution. The “rollup-centric” roadmap established around 2020-2021 assumed that L1 would be difficult to scale directly and should focus on data availability and settlement, leaving transaction execution to Layer 2. This strategy has been highly successful: over 95% of transaction execution has migrated to L2, with L1 now primarily serving as the “global settlement layer.”

However, this paradigm faces new scrutiny in 2026. On one hand, L2’s full decentralization process is slower than expected, with residual centralization in sequencers and governance, preventing it from “perfectly inheriting” L1’s security—more like sovereign states with different trust assumptions. On the other hand, Ethereum core developers have found that L1’s own scaling potential is far from exhausted. The multi-dimensional Gas model proposed by Vitalik aims to improve L1 execution capacity while precisely controlling state bloat, the core bottleneck limiting decentralization. The Strawmap release institutionalizes this “L1-first” approach, marking Ethereum’s shift from passively waiting for L2 expansion to actively reinforcing its core as a “federated” system.

Dual Engines: Multi-Dimensional Gas and Blob

The core of this roadmap upgrade lies in fine-tuning resource pricing mechanisms and expanding data capacity.

The multi-dimensional Gas mechanism is central to short-term scaling. Currently, Ethereum’s Gas model bundles all operation costs into a single dimension, unable to distinguish between “compute” and “state growth” burdens. Vitalik’s new proposal, first introduced in the Glamsterdam upgrade, separates “state creation Gas.” For example, creating a new account or storage slot via SSTORE will incur a small amount of “regular Gas” plus a large amount of “state creation Gas.” The latter is not counted toward the current block Gas limit (around 16 million), meaning that, without significantly increasing node state burden, L1 can accommodate more complex computations and even larger contracts. Using a “reservoir” mechanism, the EVM can seamlessly support this multi-dimensional design, laying the groundwork for future fully multi-dimensional floating pricing.

Long-term, Blob evolution will fundamentally change the data relationship between L1 and L2. Currently, Blob is mainly used for L2 to publish transaction data to L1. Future goals include iterating PeerDAS protocols to handle about 8 MB/sec of data, and eventually allowing L1 block data to be directly stored in Blob. This means validators can verify block validity via data availability sampling (DAS) without downloading the entire block, combined with ZK-EVM proofs, enabling “trustless lightweight validation.” This paves the way for exponential increases in Gas limits. In fact, the BPO2 upgrade in January 2026 already increased each block’s Blob capacity by 40%, with Blob fees accounting for 19% of L1 fee structure, signaling a shift from “execution charges” to “settlement and data availability charges.”

Consensus, Concerns, and Unanswered Questions

This new scaling paradigm has sparked multi-level discussions within and outside the industry.

Mainstream views are generally positive. Developers and long-term researchers see this as a pragmatic path to performance breakthroughs while maintaining decentralization. Incorporating quantum resistance (one of Strawmap’s five major goals) and protocol-layer privacy into long-term planning demonstrates Ethereum’s forward-looking stance as a leading public chain. For markets, a clear and ambitious roadmap provides predictable technical evolution, helping to hedge against short-term price volatility narratives.

However, there are notable debates and execution concerns:

• Governance and decentralization risks: Some worry that the Strawmap, although labeled a “strawman,” may subtly influence development directions, weakening community diversity. Maintaining “trust neutrality” amid increasing influence from institutional capital (e.g., Bitwise holding large ETH positions) remains a challenge.
• Technical feasibility: Achieving slot reductions to 2 seconds, finality within seconds, and integrating real-time ZK-EVM proofs, DAS, and post-quantum signatures within four years is highly challenging. Some developers believe the timeline may be overly optimistic, especially given that formal verification and security measures are still maturing.
• Repositioning of L2: Will the new roadmap squeeze L2’s role? Vitalik responds that L2 will no longer be “brand-sharded,” but will exist on different trust spectra. Some L2s may fully inherit L1 security, others may focus on application-layer innovation. However, the lack of “synchronous composability” remains a fundamental obstacle for cross-L2 interoperability, and enhanced L1 capabilities might lead some applications to consider “re-rolling back” to L1.

Fact, Opinion, and Speculation

When analyzing this grand narrative, it’s essential to distinguish information levels:

• Facts: Vitalik Buterin has publicly published technical articles on short- and long-term scaling. The Ethereum Foundation has released the Strawmap draft, outlining plans for seven forks by 2029 and goals like “Terabit Gas.” The Glamsterdam and Hegotá upgrades are scheduled for 2026. The BPO2 upgrade is complete, with Blob capacity increased by 40%.
• Opinions: “L2 cannot perfectly inherit L1 security” and “L1 should return to core scaling” are current diagnoses and future directions from Vitalik and some core developers. Multi-dimensional Gas is viewed as the best solution to state bloat and is the mainstream technical community’s consensus.
• Speculation: Will the semi-annual fork schedule in Strawmap be strictly followed? Can ZK-EVM reach sufficient maturity by 2027 to support 20% network operation? Will post-quantum signature schemes be integrated without significant efficiency loss? Can Blob data capacity reach 8 MB/sec and carry L1’s own data?

Power, Value, and Competition Reconstructed

This shift in scaling paradigm will have profound impacts on Ethereum’s ecosystem and the entire blockchain race.

First, the balance of power between L1 and L2 will be reconfigured. Over the past two years, L1’s value capture has mainly come from Blob fees and MEV, while L2 captures most execution-layer value. As L1’s execution capacity improves, applications requiring high security and interoperability (e.g., large DeFi protocols, RWA pools) may reconsider deploying some logic on L1. L1 will no longer be a passive “settlement backbone” but a more active “core economic zone.” L2 will need to move up the stack, focusing on ultra-fast trading, gaming, social applications, and becoming a “diversified execution zone and innovation sandbox.”

Second, ETH’s value capture logic will evolve further. As Gas fees shift from L2 to L1, ETH’s valuation anchor is moving from a “cash flow model” to a “asset premium model.” The new roadmap reinforces this in two ways: first, “settlement sovereignty premium”—as L1 becomes an indispensable security and interoperability hub, ETH’s role as a “credit backing” asset gains importance; second, “security sharing premium”—stronger L1 means more robust economic security for L2 and cross-chain applications, further solidifying ETH’s position as a staked and re-staked asset. As of February 2026, ETH staking rate exceeds 30%, with total locked value in re-staking protocols surpassing $32 billion, exemplifying this trend.

Finally, the competition with Solana enters a new dimension. Previously, the comparison was simplified as “modular vs monolithic.” Solana’s high performance has often outperformed Ethereum in DEX trading volume and active addresses. However, Ethereum’s new roadmap shows it is not rigidly committed to modularity but is gradually improving L1 performance through multi-dimensional Gas and ZK-EVM, while maintaining decentralization. Future competition will be a contest between “trustless decentralization + composability ecosystem” and “extreme performance + seamless experience.” Solana’s move toward modularity and institutionalization via Firedancer contrasts with Ethereum’s approach of leveraging ZK tech for performance, leading to an “asymmetric convergence” where both aim to dominate mainstream institutional applications.

Multi-Scenario Evolution

Based on the above analysis, we can project several possible futures for Ethereum’s scaling roadmap.

Conclusion

The new scaling blueprint outlined by Vitalik Buterin signifies Ethereum’s return to core values after years of exploration. It aims to transform from a “security core” consumed by L2 into a more powerful, vibrant “settlement sovereignty.” Starting with Glamsterdam’s multi-dimensional Gas, and extending to Strawmap’s vision of a “Terabit Gas” future, Ethereum is carefully but firmly redefining the boundaries of power between L1 and L2, and its competitive edge against chains like Solana—anchored in the highest decentralization standards, programmability, and composability. This path is fraught with technical and governance challenges, but its success could enable Ethereum to truly evolve from a “world computer” into a “global financial settlement layer.”